COMMODITIES: Gold Pierces $4200 Round Number Resistance

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible recent reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and continues to trade at its recent highs. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high once again, last week. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3504.1, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $0.26 or +0.41% at $62.94
• Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.82% at $2.964
• Gold spot up $1.54 or +0.04% at $3644.05
• Copper up $0.35 or +0.08% at $465.5
• Silver up $0.02 or +0.05% at $42.199
• Platinum up $3.49 or +0.25% at $1400.63

A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5370.21, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. The next resistance to watch is 5445.00, Aug 26 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6685.25, a Fibonacci projection, and the 6700.00 handle. On the downside, initial support to watch is 6547.03, the 20-day EMA.

• In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 10.094 pts or -0.26% at 3860.504 and the HANG SENG ended 58.4 pts higher or +0.22% at 26446.56.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 137.47 pts or +0.58% at 23836.41, FTSE 100 lower by 2.69 pts or -0.03% at 9280.55, CAC 40 up 93.41 pts or +1.19% at 7918.65 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 47.55 pts or +0.88% at 5438.26.
• Dow Jones mini up 114 pts or +0.25% at 45967, S&P 500 mini up 7 pts or +0.11% at 6595, NASDAQ mini down 10.5 pts or -0.04% at 24102.75.

• A contained session for global currency markets and the dollar index has kept EURUSD within a 28 pip range since the open, continuing to respect Friday’s range between 1.1700/50. While underlying bullish conditions remain intact for EURUSD, this week’s Fed decision could be a pivotal moment for the pair, with the 1.1829 bull trigger and the 50-day EMA (intersecting at 1.1639) remaining the key short-term parameters.
• Given the policy decisions in both Canada and Japan this week, EURJPY and EURCAD continue to standout as solid candidates to benefit from renewed Euro strength. For EURPY specifically, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high.
• The single currency looks a little more vulnerable elsewhere, as EURGBP slips to a 2-week low and EURAUD presses towards the worst levels in three months.
• For EURGBP, the latest pullback appears technically corrective, and support to watch remains at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat, potentially targeting 0.8540, the Jun 30 low. Labour market figures, CPI data and the BOE will place a hue amount of attention on sterling this week.
• EURAUD weakness has re-emerged today after trading in a more stable manner Friday. The cross sits over 3% off the late August highs, with a breach of trendline support and the July 31 low bolstering bearish momentum. Targets on the downside would include 1.7462 (Jun 10 low) and 1.7248 (May 14 low). Australian employment data is due Thursday.