COMMODITIES: Gold Partially Pares Some of This Week's Earlier Decline
WTI futures have traded higher this week highlighting an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.21. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3321.1, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
- WTI Crude down $0.13 or -0.19% at $69.88
- Natural Gas down $0.04 or -1.18% at $3.01
- Gold spot up $34.9 or +1.07% at $3309.87
- Copper down $118.1 or -21.14% at $439.75
- Silver down $0.18 or -0.49% at $36.9395
- Platinum up $11.73 or +0.89% at $1324.83
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MNI: EUROZONE JUN FLASH HICP +2% Y/Y
- MNI: EUROZONE JUN FLASH HICP +2% Y/Y
- MNI: EUROZONE JUN FLASH CORE HICP +2.3% Y/Y
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Large EUR on Thursday
Big expiry in EUR Thursday at 1.1800.
Of note:
EURUSD 3.5bn at 1.1700 and 2.08bn at 1.1800.
EURUSD 2.05bn at 1.1700 and 1.47bn at 1.1800 (wed).
EURUSD 2.68bn at 1.1700 and 4.62bn at 1.1800 (thu).
USDCAD 1.07bn at 1.3600 (thu).
AUDUSD 2.55bn at 0.6600 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1700 (3.5bn), 1.1750 (951mln), 1.1800 (2.08bn).
- USDJPY: 143.00 (200mln), 143.40 (280mln), 143.50 (560mln), 143.60 (203mln), 143.65 (300mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3600 (360mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6560 (874mln).
GBP: New Cycle Highs Expose Next Resistance
- Latest press lower for the USD has prompted GBP/USD to show to a new cycle high at 1.3773 - this is now the best marked levels since October 2021 and extends the bull cycle in the pair.
- USD is certainly the driver here, and while GBP is firmer against the EUR on the day, GBP/JPY is under pressure as the cross undergoes a corrective pullback off last week's highs.
- An uptick in futures volumes on the break to new highs clearly helping here, and shifts focus to 1.38 round number resistance and then the October 20th 2021 high beyond at 1.3835
- The difficulty of passage of today's welfare bill in the House of Commons may not be directly market relevant, but the scale of opposition will serve as a further reminder of the hurdles facing the PM's pro-growth agenda.
