COMMODITIES: Gold Off Week's Lows, But Shy of Initial Resistance at $4161.40
WTI futures are unchanged and the contract remains in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.03. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. A fresh cycle low last week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3867.3. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI Crude up $0.3 or +0.5% at $60.88
- Natural Gas down $0.12 or -2.65% at $4.228
- Gold spot up $38.19 or +0.97% at $3971.07
- Copper down $1.75 or -0.35% at $493.05
- Silver up $0.63 or +1.33% at $47.7921
- Platinum down $0.59 or -0.04% at $1539.74
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a 2.382 projection of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6684.22. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5525.00, the Aug 22 high.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: DTC Results (Source: Bloomberg)
| Type | 2-month DTC | 6-month DTC |
| Maturity | Nov 27, 2025 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.89bln | E1.92bln |
| Target | E1.0-2.0bln | E1.0-2.0bln |
| Previous | E1.47bln | E1.44bln |
| Avg yield | 1.948% | 1.965% |
| Previous | 1.948% | 1.954% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.05x | 1.33x |
| Previous | 1.39x | 1.44x |
| Previous date | Sep 01, 2025 | Sep 01, 2025 |
SECURITY: US Officials Confident Of Gaza Ceasefire Ahead Of Talks In Egypt
US and Israeli negotiators are due to meet Hamas officials for indirect ceasefire talks in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in the coming hours. The talks come after Hamas agreed to parts of the 20-point ceasefire plan US President Donald Trump unveiled last week, after consultations with Arab and Muslim leaders.
- Trump, who gave Hamas a Sunday afternoon deadline to accept the deal or face 'consequences', told reporters yesterday, “…it looks like it's working. So we'll wait for a little while, see how it all turns out.” On Truth Social, Trump characterised the talks as technical negotiations to “work through and clarify the final details” of the first phase of the ceasefire.
- Secretary of State Rubio told Fox on Sunday, "There's talks ongoing, which we hope will be finalized very quickly, on the logistics of that..." Rubio told ABC 90% of the work has been completed, "Who knows the timeline, but this cannot take weeks or even multiple days. We want to see this happen very fast."
- While Israel and Hamas have signalled intent to move forward with a ceasefire, gaps remain. The most significant, Hamas’s objection to disarming and being excluded from the future governance of Gaza.
- NYT reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, “is in no position to defy [Trump] while facing [growing international isolation], analysts say, increasing its reliance on the United States.” CNN reports, "Deadly strikes continue to batter Gaza despite [Trump’s] call for Israel to pause the bombing."
- White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to join the talks on Tuesday or Wednesday, per Axios.
