GOLD: Gold Off Intraday High, Increased US Steel Tariffs Introduced
Gold prices are slightly higher today as US 50% steel and aluminium tariffs come into effect. They fell 0.8% on Tuesday. It remains a safe haven asset as trade uncertainty continues. Bullion is 0.1% higher at $3355.7/oz after a high of $3372.67 which followed a low of $3346.57, trading between initial resistance and support. The USD index is up slightly.
- Trade negotiations with the US continue as the end of the 90-day reprieve on July 8 approaches but it remains unclear whether there will be an agreement with Europe and China before then. The OECD revised 2025 global growth down 0.2pp to 2.9% after 3.3% in 2024.
- Equities are generally higher with the Hang Seng up 0.7% and Kospi +2.4% but S&P e-mini down 0.1%. Oil prices are lower with WTI -0.5% to $63.12/bbl, copper is 0.9% higher and silver is down 0.1% to $34.48.
- Later the Fed’s Cook & Bostic and ECB’s Machado appear. The BoC is expected to leave rates at 2.75%. US May services ISM/PMI, May ADP employment and May European services PMIs print. The focus remains on Friday’s US payrolls.
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ASIA STOCKS: Mixed Day with Key Markets Closed
With the larger markets of South Korea and China out today for public holidays, those bourses open were mixed as currencies were the focus. Ongoing USD weakness saw regional currencies perform strongly with several up over 1% today.
- Despite a very strong day for the TWD, the TAIEX started the week on the backfoot down -0.75% today, following on from last week’s strong gains.
- In Malaysia, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell -0.45% following posting strong positive gains last week.
- The Jakarta Composite was up +0.50% following three successive weeks of very strong gains.
- Singapore’s FTSE Straits Times delivered modest gains of +0.10% as did the PSEi in the Philippines which rose +0.25%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 has enjoyed strong inbound FDI of late and lasts week rose +1.28% to mark three successive weeks of gains and has started this week off strongly up +0.50%
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1337 @ 05:57 BST May 5
- SUP 1: 1.1264 20-day EMA and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.1144 High APr 3
- SUP 3: 1.1036 50-day EMA and a pivot level
- SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3
A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play. The trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1264. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
GOLD: Gold Jumps on USD Weakness
- Gold jumps in Asian trading to deliver +0.45% gains as further USD weakness continued.
- Gold had its worst week since late February as news of potential trade agreements gave markets a boost and pushed some equity bourses back above pre tariff announcement levels.
- Gold was down -2.39% for the week, and opened today in Asia at US$3,239.76 rising to $3,255.46.
- South African miner Gold Fields Ltd will buy Gold Road Resources Ltd for a purchase price of A$3.7bn to conclude several weeks of negotiations.
