GOLD: Gold Jumps on Softer Dollar.
- The gold market leapt on weaker than expected PPI for April despite the revising up of the previous month and retail sales largely in line and the prior month revised up also.
- Despite that the language from the Fed seemingly points to a period of being on hold rather than an urgent need to cut.
- The Federal Reserve will reconsider the average inflation targeting regime it adopted in 2020 and update its policymaking framework now that the economy has entered an era of higher long term interest rates and potentially more volatile inflation, Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday." "Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s. We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks - a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks"
- Gold finished strongly as the USD fell post the data.
- Gold finished the US trading session up +1.98% and has opened in the Asia trading day at US$3,240.05.
- Gold’s rally puts it in touch with the 20-day EMA of $3,263.88 having bounced off the 50-day EMA of $3,171.09 earlier this week.
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AUD: A$ Outperforms on Tuesday, But Softer Start To Today
Aussie along with the kiwi and pound were the only currencies in the G10 to strengthen against the greenback, as the former two continued to recover in a more stable market environment. AUDUSD reached a peak of 0.6383 before trending lower as the S&P weakened. The pair finished up 0.3% to 0.6344 but is down 0.1% to 0.6341 in today’s APAC trading as the risk pullback during the US session continued. It is already off the early lows though. The USD index rose 0.4%, as the euro weakened on slow progress on tariff negotiations.
- Technicals point to a short-term bullish tone with AUDUSD rising above 0.6267, 50-day EMA, which signals scope for the reversal to strengthen. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s intraday high of 0.6383 with the reversal trigger at 0.6389. Initial support is at 0.6232, 20-day EMA.
- Kiwi outperformed the G10 leaving AUDNZD down 0.1% to 1.0756 and it is currently slightly lower at 1.0752.
- AUDJPY rose 0.4% to 90.88 but is down 0.3% to 90.65 so far today. Aussie gained some ground against the euro rising 0.9% to 0.5624 but is currently down 0.2% to 0.5613. AUDGBP was down slightly to 0.4795 but is down 0.1% to 0.4790 in APAC trading.
- Equities were mixed with the Euro stoxx up 1.2% but the S&P down 0.2%. Oil prices were steady with WTI at $61.53/bbl. Copper is off its intraday low but still down 0.2% and iron ore is $99-100/t.
- Today Westpac’s March leading indicator prints.
JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.95 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 140.32 @ 15:50 GMT Apr 15
- SUP 1: 139.52 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs are extending the strong bullish reversal, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
OIL: Higher Crude Stocks But Products Lower
Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 2.4mn barrels last week (Cushing fell 349k), while products fell again with gasoline down 3mn and distillate 3.2mn, according to people familiar with the API data. The official EIA figures are out later today but higher crude and lower products has been a common trend over recent weeks signalling that US demand remains solid.
