COMMODITIES: Gold in Consolidation Mode, Trend Remains Bullish Overall
Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now - and a bear threat remains present. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would open key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4044.0. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
- WTI Crude down $0 or 0% at $58.27
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.33% at $4.557
- Gold spot down $14.42 or -0.34% at $4193.27
- Copper up $7.7 or +1.45% at $539.75
- Silver up $0.24 or +0.4% at $60.8945
- Platinum down $20.84 or -1.23% at $1671.97
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SONIA OPTIONS: SFIH6 96.25/35/65/75 Call Condor Lifted
SFIH6 96.25/35/65/75 call condor paper paid 5.75 on 5K.
BONDS: Gilt/Bunds Above 180bp, Goldman Recommend Long In Gilts
Gilt/Bunds slightly wider on the day, out to 180.5bp after failing to hold a break below 175bp last week.
- We noted that room for gilt outperformance (from a tactical perspective) had narrowed ahead of last week’s BoE decision but did flag some potential medium-term drivers of gilt outperformance vs. German paper (a dovish BoE outcome, various possible fiscal measures and a reduction in gilt issuance).
- UK paper hasn’t manged to benefit from the dovish hold that the Bank delivered as of yet, taking cues from wider sentiment in the times since.
- However, Goldman Sachs have recommended entering Gilt/Bund tighteners at 180bp (target 140bp, stop 205bp).
- They note they “think the MPC’s message was gilt supportive. Our economists now expect a cut in December, and three further cuts by the July meeting as disinflationary pressure gains strength. For the time being, focus will shift back to the Autumn budget, which we expect will add fiscal drag and reinforce disinflation, which is set to drive inflation differentiation vs. Europe”.
- Goldman also expect this recommendation to garner support from the supply picture, arguing that “gross gilt issuance needs are below those of Germany in 2026. We also note that the sharp increase in pickup of BoE repo facilities may strengthen the argument for slowing down QT”.
US: Centrist Democrats Break w/Leadership To Reopen Govt, Secure Small Wins
Eight centrist Democrats yesterday took the first step toward reopening the government, voting with Republicans on a new Continuing Resolution to fund the US government through January 30. The package provides backpay to furloughed federal workers and includes a three-bill Fiscal 2026 appropriations package covering Agriculture, Rural Development, and FDA, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Legislative Branch.
- The deal includes a commitment for a Senate vote in December on renewing the expiring ACA tax credits, but as it does not include a commitment from President Donald Trump or House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), it is unlikely to pass, especially considering Trump’s recent activity on social media decrying the ACA as a ‘scam’.
- Senate Republican leadership are eying final passage today, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is unlikely to provide the votes to fast-track the process. The government is likely to be reopened on Wednesday, at the earliest. Punchbowl points out that none of the Democrats who voted 'yes' are up for re-election in 2026, insulating them from blowback from progressives.
- The deal fails to achieve Democrats’ core demand of an extension to Affordable Care Act subsidies, but does secure small wins with a promise to backpay federal workers, resume withheld federal payments to states, and a provision to reverse federal layoffs made during the shutdown.
- Democrats will also claim a win by fully funding Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), although as the programme is funded via mandatory spending in the Department of Agriculture’s annual spending bill, it wasn’t at risk of being cut.
