GOLD: Gold Hits New Highs

The market has started to realise this is not just a US problem and a US recession has serious implications for global growth. This has seen the USD return as a safe haven and risk proxy currencies like the AUD and NZD be particularly hard hit as the right hand side of the USD smile comes into play. A raft of Asian currencies have reached out to the US looking to remove either levies on US imports or open trade talks. China though unveiled a 34% duty on all US imports and this will be front centre as the market attempts to digest the implications of this in the Asian session.

• A huge range Friday 0.5552 - 0.5803, as the market went from selling USD’s thinking this would be US centric, but as global markets have all reacted violently lower so the USD has again been sought out as a safe haven.
• Technically the NZD continues to hold the 0.5500 support area, but price has moved quickly from looking like it was forming a base to again testing this pivotal support.
• This area has held 3 times going back to 2020, a break could start to see this move accelerate and the risk is it mirrors the move seen in the AUD on Friday and we have a gap lower in very thin liquidity. 
• The CFTC data show both leverage funds and asset managers are running historically large short positions, if risk continues to melt down, expect these to be added to.
• A huge move  lower in AUD/NZD on Friday as stale thematic longs are liquidated, this would have added to the selling pressure in the AUD on Friday night.
• On the day expect sellers to sell into any bounce back towards 0.5650/0.5700. All eyes though will be watching the key 0.5500 area for signs it might give way..
• RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday.

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.760 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: 96.690 @ 16:40 GMT Apr 04
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures ripped to new contract highs again on Friday - clearing resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.915 - High Apr 4 
• PRICE: 95.860 @ 16:42 GMT Apr 04
• SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.