COMMODITIES: Gold Hits Another All-Time High, Silver Rallies, Crude Pulls Back
- Spot gold has rallied by a further 1.2% to a fresh all-time high at $3,578/oz today, with the yellow metal now up by ~8% from the August 20 low.
- Spot is on track for its longest streak of daily higher highs since 2022, which was only previously surpassed in 2017.
- The recent rally has been spurred by fresh concerns around Fed independence amid the ongoing Governor Cook saga and mounting fears around fiscal pressures.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with this week’s gains confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- The next objective is the $3,600.00 handle, followed by $3,623.1, a Fibonacci projection.
- Meanwhile, silver has also rallied by 1.2% to $41.4/oz today, taking total gains since Aug 20 to around 12%.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with the precious metal piercing resistance at $41.064, the 1.764 projection of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing, today. Above here, sights are on round number resistance at the $42.0 handle next.
- Elsewhere, crude has come under pressure on Wednesday after OPEC+ said it was considering further voluntary cut rollbacks at its upcoming weekend meeting.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 2.6% at $63.9/bbl.
- A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support seen at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
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USDJPY TECHS: Break of 20-day EMA
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.92 Intraday high
- PRICE: 147.20 @ 17:18 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 147.06 Low Aug 4
- SUP 2: 146.80 50% retracement Jul - Aug Upleg
- SUP 3: 146.51 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24
USDJPY reversed sharply from Friday’s intraday high and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. While the pullback in prices Friday may have been corrective, the break and close below 147.63, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.
US: Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for July
- The Fed Board has released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for July. Link: SLOOS
- "Regarding loans to businesses over the second quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans."
- "For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand for residential mortgage loans, on balance. In addition, banks reported tighter lending standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). For consumer loans, standards tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans. Meanwhile, demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans and strengthened for auto loans."
EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Signals A Bullish Turn
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8704 @ 17:17 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.8587 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8587. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.
