GOLD: Gold Finishes Up on Trump Threats

US President Trump has posted on Truth Social, stating that Iran should have signed the deal he told them to sing, while also re-iterating that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He also noted that everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately, see below for the full post.

• US President Trump's Truth Social Post: ""Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"
• It remains to be seen if the last reference in terms of the evacuation of Tehran is reference to an expected pick up in military activity from either the Israel or US side.
• It has been noted over the past day or so of a pick in US military activity. Rtrs reported: "The U.S. military has moved a large number of refueling aircraft to Europe to provide options to President Donald Trump as Middle East tensions erupt into conflict between Iran and Israel, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity."
• Tensions appeared to ease somewhat on Monday as Iran signaled it was willing to negotiate. Strikes by both Israel and Iran have continued though.
• Oil prices have edged higher following the Trump comments, last near $72.10/bbl for WTI. Session lows today were at $71/bbl. US equity futures have also nudged down, last off around 0.25% for Eminis. 

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
• PRICE: 139.09 @ 17:13 GMT Jun 16
• SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
• SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
• SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs hold above recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. 

Oil prices rose sharply at the start of Monday’s APAC trading in reaction to Israel striking Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure but they then trended lower through the day and reached a low following news that Iran wants to discuss an end to the hostilities and a resumption of negotiations on its nuclear agenda.

• WTI fell to $69.38/bbl following the reports on Iran and then finished down 2.1% to $71.48/bbl and is currently around $71.72 following Trump's comments to evacuate Tehran. It is now up 5.1% since Israel made the first strike and 17.6% this month. It broke briefly below initial support at $68.49 yesterday. Initial resistance is at $77.62. The USD was flat on the day.
• Brent reached a low of $70.56/bbl before finishing down 2.5% at $72.37. It is now up 4.3% since Thursday and 15.3% in June. A bull cycle remains intact but movements are likely to be volatile and technicals are suggesting that the trend is currently very overbought. Yesterday it held above initial support at $70.41. Initial resistance is at $78.50.
• US President Trump has reiterated that Iran wants to start negotiations but since it is in the stronger position Israel plans to continue weakening Iran’s military capability. Iran wants to ensure that the US doesn’t join the conflict. But Iran and Israel continued attacks overnight.
• Concerns that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz to fuel exports, which 30% of the world’s oil travels through, remain heightened and likely to support some geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. Morgan Stanley increased its crude forecasts $10/bbl, according to Bloomberg. Hostilities are disrupting shipping in the region.