COMMODITIES: Gold Down on Rate Cuts Uncertainty, Whilst Oil Bounces from Lows
- Oil finished higher in the US trading day, despite the International Energy Agency increasing estimates for a record global oil surplus next year for a sixth consecutive month, as OPEC+ continues to revive supplies and demand growth remains subdued. Current forecast suggest that supply could exceed demand next year by 4 million barrels per day.
- The increase in supply is seeing shipping costs rise too as the availability of supertankers is constrained by supply and restrictions on the Russian fleet.
- President Trump has removed restrictions on oil drilling in Alaska, reversing Joe Biden's designation that a 13 million hectare areas be off limits.
- Despite this, oil moved higher overnight and is set to start the day in Asia on a positive note. In what looks more like a reaction to the huge sell off Wednesday, WTI edged up +0.34% at the US close, finishing at US$58.69 bbl.
- Brent rose +0.48% to US$63.01 in attempts to cover from falling over -3.7% Wednesday.
- Just as US treasuries sold off overnight as traders pare bets on a December rate cut, gold fell too. Gold is sensitive to rate cuts given it doesn't pay a coupon, making funding costs far more important and bullion declined -0.57% into the US close at US$4,176.
Gold remains on track though even with over 4% of gains for the week it remains below overbought on the RSI. Having been overbought for most of September and October, the declines in prices off new highs in early November took gold back to fair value on the 14RSI. This week however has seen a resurgence in momentum with all moving averages upward sloping, a sign that the positive momentum is returning.
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AUSSIE BONDS: Softer Futures, But Sep Highs Still Close, RBA's Hunter Speaks
Early Wednesday trade has Aussie bond futures down modestly, although we are still holding onto the bulk of recent gains seen this week. 3yr futures were last 96.50 (+2.5bps), while 10yr were at 95.73 (+2bps ). For 3yr recent Sep highs remain intact at 96.615, while for the 10yr the upside focus point is 95.78. Clearance of these levels would reinstate a bullish theme.
- Focus is on US-China tensions, which softened as Tuesday's session unfolded, with the USTR stating trade talks are on-going. Recall yesterday, risk off gripped markets as China announced shipping curbs/investigation.
- Whilst tomorrow the Sep Jobs data prints. We do hear from the RBA's Hunter later this morning, but the central bank is in data watch mode at this stage and still painting a cautious outlook (in terms of further cuts). A full 25bps cut is not priced in until Feb/Mar next year.
- ACGB cash yields sit around 2bps firmer across the benchmarks in the first part of Wednesday trade. The 3yr back to 3.48%, after finding support near 3.45%.
- The 3/10s curve is +77bps, slightly flatter. The AU-US 10yr spread has stabilized ahead of +20bps.
- Note today we also get the Westpac Leading index for Sep, while we also have a 2035 bond sale.
US TSYS: Yields Grind Lower as 10-Yr Eyes Key Resistance
TYZ5 traded up over night, reaching a high of 113-17+ before closing at 113-13+, a gain of +08. Futures have opened trading in the Asia trading day and is giving back some of those gains, down at 113-09+
- The US 2-year yield had decent overnight rally down -2bps at 3.48% to reach 1-Yr lows. Looking at the MIPR function on BBG, the next rate cut is largely priced in and when looking for a catalyst for the 2-Yr to head lower, it is likely that it could come from the guidance post the October 30 meeting. See chart below of US 2-Yr vs Fed Funds Upper bound.
- The US 10-Yr closed at 4.034%, relatively unchanged. We observe that the trading range for the US 10-Yr of 4.20% - 4.00% has held over the last month and looking for catalysts that could break that range; we look ahead to the September CPI to be released October 2024.
- The US 30-Yr finished marginally higher in yield at 4.633% and appears to be stabilizing around these levels for now.
- We assess that back-to-back October / December cuts look to be supported by 7 of 12 2025 FOMC members, with all four regional presidents eyeing either one or no more cuts.
- The core of the Committee including all on the Board except for Barr will support cuts though as it stands, and we think the bar is fairly high for the holdouts to dissent.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) S/T Bounce
- RES 3: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 95.875 - High Jul 2 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.780 - High Sep 12, 18 and 19
- PRICE: 95.735 @ 16:29 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures are trading closer to their recent lows, however have rallied since the beginning of the week. Further stability here may signal that the recent move down is a correction. Near-term resistance to watch is 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher and open 95.875, the Jul 2 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead be bearish.
