COMMODITIES: Gold Continues to Trade Just Below Bull Trigger

A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal retracing from last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3932.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.

• WTI Crude down $0.18 or -0.3% at $59.73
• Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.18% at $4.354
• Gold spot down $3.87 or -0.1% at $4043.47
• Copper down $2.5 or -0.49% at $506.15
• Silver up $0.17 or +0.34% at $50.4359
• Platinum up $7.42 or +0.48% at $1545.57

A M/T bull trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5606.50, the 50-day EMA, and 5604.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5675.90, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The below support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancel recent bearish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6793.65, the 20-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1620.93 pts or -3.22% at 48702.98 and the TOPIX ended 96.43 pts lower or -2.88% at 3251.1.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 32.222 pts or -0.81% at 3939.813 and the HANG SENG ended 454.25 pts lower or -1.72% at 25930.03.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 300.06 pts or -1.27% at 23292.55, FTSE 100 lower by 93.17 pts or -0.96% at 9582.31, CAC 40 down 107.64 pts or -1.33% at 8011.18 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 75.28 pts or -1.33% at 5566.43.
• Dow Jones mini down 132 pts or -0.28% at 46540, S&P 500 mini down 19 pts or -0.28% at 6674, NASDAQ mini down 84.25 pts or -0.34% at 24802.

September 2026 ECB implied rates are around 2bp lower than yesterday’s close, but a more material repricing of cut expectations will require support from weakening regional data. Current consensus for Friday’s November Eurozone flash composite PMI is 52.5 – unchanged from last month’s reading and still in expansionary territory.  If data continues to suggest activity growth is resilient and a large undershoot of the 2% inflation target is unlikely, we expect implied cuts to continue bleeding out of the market. 

• ECB-dated OIS currently price 8bps of easing through September, up from 6bps at yesterday’s close and 7bps on Friday.
• The market is starting to assess the risk of hikes in the coming years, with the ESTR 1y1y rate inching back above the overnight rate in recent sessions.
• Rhetoric from most ECB speakers suggests there are no strong objections to current pricing: Rates are in a “good place” at current levels.