COMMODITIES: Gold Comfortably Clears $3000 Handle, Reinforcing Bullish Trend
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of gains appear corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $69.80, the Feb 4 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.29, 50-day EMA. A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared the psychological $3000.0 handle. Bulls have their sights on 3056.84 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at $2832.7, Feb 28 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.47 or -0.7% at $66.43
- Natural Gas up $0.03 or +0.67% at $4.079
- Gold spot down $7.81 or -0.26% at $3026.88
- Copper up $2.65 or +0.53% at $504.45
- Silver down $0.32 or -0.95% at $33.684
- Platinum down $15.25 or -1.52% at $988.71
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GILTS: Futures Gap Lower At The Open; Feb 12 Low Intact For Now
Gilt futures gap lower at the open, catching up with weakness in core EGBs and posting fresh session lows of 92.53 at typing (-77 ticks today).
- Zooming out, a bull cycle is still in play and the pullback from the Feb 6 high appears corrective for now. The Feb 12 low at 92.31 remains intact, while firm resistance is the Feb 10 high at 93.71.
- The cash curve has bear steepened, with yields 5-7bps higher. 10-year yields are up to 4.57%, just short of last Wednesday’s high of 4.58%. The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has widened 1bp to 208bps.
- For more colour on weekend news and this week’s calendar, see our morning STIR note above.
BONDS: Treasuries and Gilt Roll view
Most Desks will be starting to look at rolling their March Positions into June, pace should be expected to pick up towards the end of the Week, and will be completed next Week.
JPM:
- WNA: Bullish.
- USA: Bullish.
- UXY: Mildly bearish.
- TYA: Mildly bearish.
- FVA: Bearish.
- TUA: Bearish.
UBS:
- UBS recommend selling the Gilt March future and buying the June future "owing to valuations, a high switch potential and given positioning appears on the long side."
