COMMODITIES: Crude Falls Amid Oversupply Concerns, Precious Metals Extend Gains
Dec-11 19:44
- WTI crude prices have fallen on Thursday, with focus on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and oversupply concerns. Bearish pressure was added to by a Bloomberg report that Zelenskiy may be willing to put territorial control over Ukraine’s Donbas to a referendum.
- WTI Jan 26 is down by 1.3% at $57.7/bbl.
- Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate amid reports that the Trump administration has imposed new sanctions on three nephews of President Maduro and six companies shipping its oil.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact, with moving average studies in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $55.99, the Oct 20 low.
- Meanwhile, precious metals have rebounded today, as post-Fed dollar weakness has extended following higher-than-expected jobless claims data.
- Spot gold has risen 1.1% to a 7-week high at $4,276/oz, while silver rose to a fresh all-time high earlier, currently up 3.2% at $63.8/oz.
- Silver has been buoyed by tight physical supply, which has seen a breakdown in the Gold/Silver ratio to its lowest level since May 2021.
- Gold is in consolidation mode, with key resistance and the bull trigger at $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4,059.9.
- For silver, the trend unsurprisingly remains bullish, with sights on $64.227 which has been pierced, followed by round number resistance at $65.0.
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COMMODITIES: WTI Rallies, Spot Gold Steady As Correction Appears Over
Nov-11 19:42
- Crude prices are higher today, amid strength in oil product markets, with WTI on track for its highest close since Nov 3.
- WTI Dec 25 is up by 1.5% at $61.0/bbl.
- In the US, the House will return tomorrow to vote on the continuing resolution that could reopen the government by Friday. The bill to provide US government funding until Jan 30 passed the Senate with the support of a number of Democrats.
- For WTI futures, an upward corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.85, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
- Initial resistance is at $62.59, the Oct 24 high. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
- Despite the broader pressure on the USD, meanwhile, following the release of weak US ADP jobs data, spot gold has unwound earlier gains to be broadly unchanged on the day at $4,119/oz.
- There may be some short-term positioning dynamics in play here, given the 3.5% rally from last Thursday’s lows.
- From a technical perspective, the downleg for gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction, which has allowed an overbought condition to unwind.
- Recent gains suggest that correction is now over, with price above a key support at the 50-day EMA at $3,898.9. Initial resistance is seen at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high, a clearance of which would refocus attention on $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Easily Outperform On Soft Labour Data
Nov-11 19:41
Gilts easily outperformed peers Tuesday.
- UK labour market data broadly came in on the soft side, driving an early bull steepening rally. A December BOE cut is now around 80% priced from <70% prior, helping the UK short-end strengthen (2Y yields hit a post-Aug 2024 low).
- Treasuries led a global rally in early afternoon on weekly ADP private sector payrolls data that showed a notable contraction in the 4-week period to Oct 25.
- In other data, German ZEW underperformed in both expectations and current conditions.
- BOE MPC hawk Greene reiterated her previously aired areas of focus, having no impact on the short end & gilts.
- On the day, the German curve lightly bull flattened, while the UK's held its early bull steepening.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed vs Bunds.
- Wednesday's calendar includes Italian industrial production and final German CPI. We also get commentary from ECB's Schnabel and de Guindos, as well as BOE's Pill.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 2.001%, 5-Yr is down 0.9bps at 2.259%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 2.658%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 3.254%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 8.3bps at 3.724%, 5-Yr is down 7.8bps at 3.857%, 10-Yr is down 7.4bps at 4.387%, and 30-Yr is down 6.7bps at 5.172%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.1bps at 74.5bps / French OAT down 0.4bps at 76.4bps
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
Nov-11 19:30
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 1: 154.48/49 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger / High Nov 11
- PRICE: 154.02 @ 16:28 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: 152.70 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29
- SUP 3: 150.90 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17
The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and Tuesday’s marginal fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A clear break of the bull trigger at 154.48, the Nov 4 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.70, the 20-day EMA.
