COMMODITIES: Gold Below Two Important Short-Term Support Points
WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.55. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high. The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that today’s move down has resulted in a test of two important short-term support points; $3290.9, the 50-day EMA, and 3294.8, a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5. A reversal higher would refocus attention $3451.3, the Jun 16 high.
- WTI Crude up $0.53 or +0.81% at $65.75
- Natural Gas up $0.1 or +2.69% at $3.619
- Gold spot down $38.83 or -1.17% at $3289.72
- Copper down $1.45 or -0.28% at $510.6
- Silver down $0.61 or -1.68% at $36.0649
- Platinum down $58.78 or -4.13% at $1363.5
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OPTIONS: Expiries for May28 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1300(E1.4bln), $1.1390-00(E1.4bln), $1.1445-55(E1.0bln), $1.1500-20(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y141.00($1.3bln), Y141.75-80($990mln), Y143.00($2.0bln), Y143.90-00($1.9bln), Y145.00($1.8bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6325-30(A$500mln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5725(N$1.1bln)
GILTS: Curve Bear Flattens, Light Pressure Into Bidding Deadline
Gilt futures to fresh session lows (91.02) as we move towards the bidding deadline for the GBP2.75bln auction of the 0.875% Jul-33 green gilt.
- Fresh downward momentum in the contract would expose the 23 May low (90.46).
- Yields 2.5-4.5bp higher, curve bear flattens.
- While fundamentals and the UK fiscal picture point to continued curve steepening, the DMO’s more activist approach to issuance (ongoing skew further forwards in terms of the maturity profile, as it looks to facilitate demand changes) presents ongoing risks to this idea.
COMMODITIES: Recovery for WTI Futures Since Apr 9 Still Appears Corrective
WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.63, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a bearish signal. Recent gains in Gold signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.08 or +0.13% at $60.97
- Natural Gas up $0 or +0.03% at $3.399
- Gold spot up $19.51 or +0.59% at $3320.93
- Copper up $1.65 or +0.35% at $475.65
- Silver up $0.08 or +0.24% at $33.3368
- Platinum up $6.69 or +0.62% at $1092.23
