GOLD: Gold & Silver Jump On Prospect Of Data Providing Some Economic Clarity
Gold rallied sharply yesterday in anticipation of the delayed US data printing following reports that a deal has been reached to end the US government shutdown impasse. If it is soft when it is eventually released, then expectations of further Fed easing are likely to rise supporting non-yield bearing gold. Pricing for the December meeting rose slightly, the US dollar fell (BBDXY -0.1%) but the 2-year yield higher on Monday.
- Eight centrist Democratic senators have agreed to the bill that will allow the end of the US government shutdown, which is now the longest on record. There is some controversy as the party was determined not to agree if the extension of Obamacare subsidies wasn’t included. A vote is due to take place Monday evening EST.
- The shutdown is assumed to have reduced economic activity and liquidity. It will take time for operations to return to normal once the bill is passed and delays are possible.
- Gold prices jumped 2.9% to $4115.76/oz, close to the intraday peak of $4116.65, the highest since 24 October. It is now up 2.8% this month. Despite the strong move, it remained below initial resistance at $4161.4, 22 October high. The bull trigger is at $4381.5.
- Silver rose 4.5% to $50.510, the highest since 21 October. It is now up 3.7% in November. Like bullion it didn’t break above initial resistance at $51.071, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at $46.320, 50-day EMA.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
