WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.22. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high. Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.
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107.2/107.1/106.9 put ladder paper paid 0 for the 1 on 5K.
OATs have also started to falter vs. peripherals in recent weeks, after a relief rally seen in early ’25, underscoring the aforementioned, ongoing French political & fiscal risks.
Fig. 1: SPGB/OAT/PGB 10-Year Butterfly (bp)

Headline crossing from Bank of Finland Governor Rehn:
Nothing surprising from Rehn - he said as much last week. We consider Rehn to be a pragmatic, dovish-leaning member of the Governing Council, and generally a good barometer of the median view.