COMMODITIES: Gold 50-Day EMA Support Holding for Now

107.2/107.1/106.9 put ladder paper paid 0 for the 1 on 5K.

OATs have also started to falter vs. peripherals in recent weeks, after a relief rally seen in early ’25, underscoring the aforementioned, ongoing French political & fiscal risks.

• The 10-Year BTP/OAT spread is ~23bp lower than the April closing highs, last ~26bp.
• Meanwhile, OATs have cheapened by ~10bp on the SPGB/OAT/PGB 10-Year fly over the same horizon after a recovery from the January post-GFC closing low.

Fig. 1: SPGB/OAT/PGB 10-Year Butterfly (bp)

Headline crossing from Bank of Finland Governor Rehn:

• "ECB REHN: WILL TAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING" RTRS
• "*ECB'S REHN: MUST BE READY TO ACT AS AND WHEN NEEDED" bbg

Nothing surprising from Rehn - he said as much last week. We consider Rehn to be a pragmatic, dovish-leaning member of the Governing Council, and generally a good barometer of the median view.

• As such, we generally don't expect him to give any kind of guidance/rate outlook straight after a meeting. However, as new data/developments enter the picture, he usually provides a clearer view. His comments will be important to watch closer to the July and September decisions.