COMMODITIES: Gold 50-Day EMA Support Holding for Now
WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.22. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high. Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.37 or -0.54% at $67.99
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.72% at $3.238
- Gold spot up $16.16 or +0.49% at $3329.88
- Copper up $11.35 or +2.07% at $559.8
- Silver up $0.27 or +0.74% at $36.6577
- Platinum up $10 or +0.74% at $1361.86
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EGB OPTIONS: DUQ5 107.2/107.1/106.9 Put Ladder Lifted
107.2/107.1/106.9 put ladder paper paid 0 for the 1 on 5K.
EGBS: Multi-Week Weakness In OATs Vs. Peripherals Also Underscores French Risks
OATs have also started to falter vs. peripherals in recent weeks, after a relief rally seen in early ’25, underscoring the aforementioned, ongoing French political & fiscal risks.
- The 10-Year BTP/OAT spread is ~23bp lower than the April closing highs, last ~26bp.
- Meanwhile, OATs have cheapened by ~10bp on the SPGB/OAT/PGB 10-Year fly over the same horizon after a recovery from the January post-GFC closing low.
Fig. 1: SPGB/OAT/PGB 10-Year Butterfly (bp)
ECB: Nothing New From Rehn Yet, But Important To Track His Comments
Headline crossing from Bank of Finland Governor Rehn:
- "ECB REHN: WILL TAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING" RTRS
- "*ECB'S REHN: MUST BE READY TO ACT AS AND WHEN NEEDED" bbg
Nothing surprising from Rehn - he said as much last week. We consider Rehn to be a pragmatic, dovish-leaning member of the Governing Council, and generally a good barometer of the median view.
- As such, we generally don't expect him to give any kind of guidance/rate outlook straight after a meeting. However, as new data/developments enter the picture, he usually provides a clearer view. His comments will be important to watch closer to the July and September decisions.
