Global Week Ahead - US and UK CPI In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US December PPI and CPI
Wednesday’s CPI report for December headlines the weekly US calendar, although it’s one of the rare months where PPI lands before it on the Tuesday. That should see greater clarity around core PCE estimates following the CPI print and a faster fading of any surprises driven by CPI-idiosyncratic components. It’s still early days for entries to the Bloomberg survey, with a median of ten estimates showing a rounded 0.2% M/M for core CPI, but that’s seen as a reasonably close call for now with 4 of 10 looking for a 0.3% M/M increase. Indeed, we have seen two unrounded estimates of 0.27% M/M (Nomura) and 0.29% M/M (UBS), following an as expected 0.31% M/M back in November. Core CPI has accelerated recently, with a three-month run rate of 3.7% annualized at its fastest since April and above the 3.3% Y/Y rate. It hasn’t fully translated into core PCE strength though, at 2.5% annualized over three months and 2.8% Y/Y, although even those rates are proving stickier than expected. It's worth noting that NY Fed's Williams (permanent voter) gives a keynote address after the CPI data at 1100ET. Friday’s strong payrolls report and jump in U.Mich consumer inflation expectations now see the next Fed cut not expected until September.
WEDNESDAY - UK December CPI
In another busy week for UK data we will receive inflation data (Wednesday) as well as monthly GDP (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday). Inflation is by far the most important for the MPC. November headline CPI of 2.62%Y/Y was 0.20ppt above the BOE’s November MPR forecast but services inflation at 5.01%Y/Y was only 0.10ppt higher. The MPR forecast saw little change in the Y/Y rate vs November for headline CPI for December at 2.463% (consensus also looks for little change to November at 2.6%Y/Y) with the BOE looking for services inflation to fall to 4.74%Y/Y (consensus looks for 4.8%Y/Y). We see some risk that air fares rebound from some of their softness in November – although this is very dependent upon whether the survey date is the second (10 December) or third Tuesday (17 December) of the month. We assume the 10 December but if it is 17 December and much closer to Christmas, there are risks of a higher print.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on January 15 and is likely to keep rates at 6.0% again, as it was very clear in its December meeting statement that the “the focus of monetary policy is on strengthening Rupiah stability” given current economic uncertainties especially from the US.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (South Korea)
The economic consensus expects the BoK to cut rates by 25bps to 2.75% next week. This would fit with efforts to boost domestic confidence in light of recent onshore political turmoil (which is yet to be fully resolved). The authorities will also use other measures to deal with the fallout for FX and broader financial stability.
THURSDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to leave the reference rate unchanged at 5.75% next week but communique will be scrutinised amid signs of a split among MPC members. Ludwik Kotecki earlier this week went as far as to accuse Governor Adam Glapinski of misrepresenting the panel's consensus views when he took a sharp hawkish turn in forward guidance in December.
FRIDAY - China Q4 GDP
China Q4 GDP is expected to have improved on Q3 outcomes. December activity data will also be eyed, particularly after disappointing November retail sales. Better services PMI trends hint at a recovery in retail trade. Still, market expectations for a meaningful turn higher in China growth momentum remain fairly low at this stage.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/01/2025 | 0315/0415 |  EU | ECB's Lane in policy dialogue at Asian Financial Forum | |
| 13/01/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Trade |
| 13/01/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 13/01/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/01/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 13/01/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** |  US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 13/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 13/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 14/01/2025 | 0500/1400 |  JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 14/01/2025 | 0735/0835 | EU | ECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe | |
| 14/01/2025 | 0830/0830 |  GB | BOE's Breeden speech on Financial Stability | |
| 14/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 14/01/2025 | 1000/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 14/01/2025 | 1000/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 14/01/2025 | 1100/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 14/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 14/01/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/01/2025 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed's Schmid | |
| 14/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 15/01/2025 | 0315/0415 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference | |
| 15/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 15/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 15/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | Inflation Report |
| 15/01/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/01/2025 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/01/2025 | 0800/0900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day | |
| 15/01/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 15/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
| 15/01/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 15/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 15/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/01/2025 | 1400/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/01/2025 | 1420/0920 | US | Fed's Barkin | |
| 15/01/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 15/01/2025 | 1630/1630 | GB | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 15/01/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 16/01/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  DE | HICP (f) |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
| 16/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 16/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/01/2025 | 1230/1330 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting | |
| 16/01/2025 | 1315/0815 | ** | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 16/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 16/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 16/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 16/01/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/01/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/01/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 16/01/2025 | 1730/1230 | CA | BOC Deputy Gravelle speech to women in markets group. | |
| 17/01/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 17/01/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 17/01/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 17/01/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | GDP |
| 17/01/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 17/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 17/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17/01/2025 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference | |
| 17/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 17/01/2025 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 17/01/2025 | 2100/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
