Global refinery offline capacity is expected to be 8.8m b/d in May, before dropping to 1.3m b/d in June according to Kpler citing IIR data, as refiners ramp up runs into the peak summer demand season.
- Global refinery offline capacity jumped by 1.6m b/d in April to 9.0m b/d, driven by heavy spring maintenance and some unplanned outages.
- European outages are expected to gradually decline from late May onwards, following an extended period of outages since February.
- Europe had 1.4m b/d of offline capacity in April, with new maintenance balancing restarts.
- Asia’s outages hit 3.1m b/d in April and should rise to 4.0m b/d in May. Refinery maintenance in China is seen peaking at 2.0m b/d in May, the highest since June 2021.
- North American outages are seen falling by at least 1m b/d in May, down from 2.5m b/d in April, Kpler said.