EU CREDIT HEADLINE: Glencore (GLENLN): Rio Tinto Talks

Italy will be looking to hold an auction on Thursday after Austria came to the market yesterday. We pencil in issuance of E5.6bln for the week, down from E17.8bln last week as issuance slows into year-end. Ireland and Spain released their 2026 funding plans while we are still on the lookout for the Netherlands (Friday) and potentially Portugal this week. There may also be an update to the Slovak 2026 funding plan either this week or next. For details of funding plans released so far see pages 1-3.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to the year's remaining issuance and summaries of funding plans for 2026 released so far, click here.

• Austria will kick off issuance for the week today, with E575mln of the 2.80% Sep-32 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3NY15) on offer.
• Italy will come to the market on Thursday to hold a 3/5 year BTP auction (with no 7/15+ year BTP on offer) in the final Italian auction of 2025. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 3-year 2.35% Jan-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005660052) alongside E0.75-1.0bln of the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) and E0.75-1.0bln of the 2.70% Oct-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005654642). With the exception of the 3-year, the other two BTPs on offer are off-the-run.
  • As we had expected, the MEF has cancelled the bond auctions scheduled for 29/30 December as well as the BOT auction scheduled for 29 December.

• Norwegian November inflation is due at 0700/0800CET, and will be an important input for Norges Bank’s December MPR rate path (presented alongside the rate decision next Thursday).
• Analysts expect October’s surprising CPI-ATE uptick to 3.4% to be reversed in November, driven by food and core goods disinflation. If realised, this would bring underlying inflation back in line with Norges Bank’s 3.1% Y/Y September MPR projection.  The distribution of analyst projections is fairly symmetric, with forecasts ranging from 3.0-3.2% Y/Y. Some analysts note that the downside surprise to Sweden's November CPIF ex-energy print last week could imply downside risks to Norway's underlying inflation reading.
• Speaking to the MNI Policy Team following the higher-than-expected October print, Norges Bank Executive Director of Monetary Policy Ole Christian Bech-Moen said that “September core inflation came in 0.2 lower than in our forecast from September. And now the latest one came in 0.2 above our forecast from September. And I think these are forecasting errors that we must expect to see ... it's not unusual for us to miss by 0.2 percentage points,"
• That suggests that while modest deviations from the September MPR projections may have a mechanical impact on the upcoming December MPR rate path, it shouldn’t meaningfully change Norges Bank’s guidance. It’s possible that the Board could employ the “judgement factor” to ensure the updated rate path is consistent with its desired guidance.
• Following the November inflation report, the Q4 Regional Network Survey will be released on Thursday. This survey is a crucial input for Norges Bank. In addition to output and employment expectations, there will be plenty of focus on medium-term inflationary signals from wage growth and capacity utilisation responses.

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.73 @ 06:45 GMT Dec 10
• SUP 1: 155.51/154.35 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5 
• SUP 2: 153.71 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Recent weakness in USDJPY appears to have been a correction and the recovery from last Friday’s low signals the end of the corrective phase. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on the 158.00 handle. Key short-term support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 153.71. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.