POLAND: Glapinski's Presser In Rearview Mirror, February CPI On Tap
- At surface level, the tone of Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference turned more hawkish overall, but he still left the door ajar to rate cuts this year. The official devoted most of his presser to the hawkish balance of risks to the inflation outlook, placed more emphasis on accelerating domestic demand, and stressed that currently there are no grounds to loosen monetary policy. However, he also admitted that the Monetary Policy Council had a conversation on future rate cuts, admitted that the next move in rates will be a cut, and confirmed that if headline inflation undershoots the projection, the MPC could reduce rates this year. None of these remarks was particularly surprising in isolation, and all were made in passing and wrapped in decisively hawkish rhetoric, but theoretically leave the MPC some room to pivot to cuts if circumstances change.
- This was of significance given that the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) will announce updated tariffs later this spring. Based on wholesale market trends, household electricity tariffs are expected to decline markedly. Government officials signalled that if this is not the case, they may extend the existing price freezing mechanism. In any case, this would invalidate the NBP's inflation projection predicated on the anticipated bounce in energy prices when the price cap expires at the end of Q3.
- MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told Bloomberg that there is a chance for a rate cut in July as he questioned the central bank's new projection, but he played down the odds of a 50bp move. He also suggested that some previously hawkish members are changing their views. Meanwhile, Henryk Wnorowski said that the odds of a cut in July have slightly decreased in the light of the new projection, but it cannot be ruled out.
- Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said that the Ministry of Finance expects inflation to be close to +4% Y/Y at the end of 2025, as opposed to the +5.1% pencilled in by the NBP. He added that high interest rates hinder economic growth.
- The NBP has just published the full Inflation Report, ahead of a presentation from its senior analysts, who will discuss the document in more detail from 11:00GMT/12:00CET.
- Separately, Statistics Poland will release February CPI data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET alongside annual revisions to the composition of the CPI basket and item weightings. It will also publish the recalculated inflation reading for January, accounting for these changes. Historically, final inflation readings for January were usually adjusted lower.
- On the political front, US Vice President JD Vance said he would be "shocked" if President Donald Trump agreed to Polish President Andrzej Duda's proposal to include Poland in the US nuclear sharing programme.
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USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4291 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading in a tight range and closer to its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6301/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6290 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6301 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
EQUITIES: Some Attention on the Equity Open
Some attention on the European open, although a new record high might not be on the card, the Dax, Estoxx, CAC and FTSE futures are all on the edge of their respective record highs, so nothing can be ruled out for Cash Indices.
- Estox 50: +0.40%, Dax: +0.41%, CAC: +0.19%, FTSE +0.12%, SMI +0.27%
