BONDS: Gilts Unwind A Portion Of Last Week's Selloff, Outperforming Bunds
The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has tightened 5bps to 213bps, with UK paper staging a light relief rally alongside USTs this morning. Market moving headline flow has been relatively limited, with participants assessing weekend rhetoric from US officials on consumer electronics tariffs alongside the highly volatile nature of last week’s moves.
- Gilt yields are 3.5-9.5bps lower across the curve, bull flattening. 2s30s has fallen 6bps to ~141bps, unwinding last week’s notable steepening.
- German yields are flat to 3bps lower, with the belly outperforming.
- Futures volumes are comfortably below recent averages. Bunds are -14 ticks at 130.84 (Initial resistance at the Apr 11 high of 131.42; Support at the 20-day EMA of 129.59). Gilts are +66 at 91.30 (Initial resistance at the 20-day EMA of 91.84; Support at Apr 11 low of 90.47).
- Strength in US equity futures has fed well into outperformance for cash European indices this morning. The reprieve for electronics imports from China into the US is the driver here. That helps 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds tighten.
- BTPs outperform, also aided by S&P’s upgrade of Italy's sovereign rating to BBB+ (Outlook Stable) after hours on Friday.
- This week’s regional calendar is headlined by UK labour market (Tues) and inflation (Weds) data and the ECB decision (Thurs).
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
