GILTS: Opening calls

French gov't spox Maud Bregeon confirmed in an interview on France 2 that the Council of Ministers is set to meet today with the potential use of Art. 49.3 of the French constitution to push the budget through parliament without a vote on the agenda. Bregenon sought to emphasise that at this stage the discussions were a formality. Legally, before Art. 49.3 can be used, the Council of Ministers has to discuss and approve its implementation. The spox said that gaining ministerial approval would avoid the situation of a hastily convened meeting should the budget appear on course for defeat further down the line. 

• Bregenon said that using Art 49.3 "is not the will of the Prime Minister, and we will let the debates take place as long as necessary".
• Politically the budget sits in a very precarious position, being reliant on the actions of the far-right Rassembelement National. If the RN votes for the budget or abstains then it can pass. However, if the RN votes against it  then this would force the gov't to use Art 49.3.
• The use of Art 49.3 risks societal and political pushback. Mass protests could erupt on the streets, and in the National Assembly using the article  brings forward the prospect of a no-confidence vote. The gov't would once again be reliant on RN support to remain in office, something that cannot be guaranteed.
• A bullet looking at the potential timetable for the budget will follow shortly. 

Euribor sees plenty of early activity in Options:

• ERH5 98.25/98.50/98.75c fly, bought for 1 in 1k.
• ERH5 97.37/97.75/98.12c fly, trades for 13.5 in 2k.
• ERH5 97.87/98.25/98.62c fly, bought for 5.5 in 5k.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).