GILTS: Opening calls
Oct-17 06:56
Gilt calls, 97.65/97.71 range
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Sep-17 06:55
Estox 50: +0.38%, Dax: +0.35%, CAC: +0.62%, FTSE +0.64%, SMI +0.40%.
BUNDS: Looking to test initial resistance
Sep-17 06:54
- Some bids are emerging in Bund, but in very light volumes, eyeing a test towards the initial resistance of 135.19.
- Upside momentum will open to 2.078%, the August low in yield.
Today reference 135.12:
- 2.078% = 135.50.
STIR: Prospect of 50bp Fed Cut Keeps Euribor Underpinned
Sep-17 06:47
The prospect of a 50bp Fed cut tomorrow has kept Euribor futures underpinned, currently little changed versus yesterday’s settlement. However, futures generally remain just short of last week’s multi-month highs, after President Lagarde struck a somewhat cautious tone at the ECB’s September meeting.
- This has allowed ERZ4 spreads to move a little above last week’s cycle lows.
- Yesterday evening, Latvian CB Governor Kazaks re-iterated his expectation for rates to be cut further. He had already noted last Friday that the bar to an October cut was quite high, though.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to price 7bps of easing through the October meeting and 37bps of cuts through year-end.
- Today’s calendar includes the September ZEW survey in Germany, though US retail sales / industrial production will be the main focus ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.
- ECB’s Simkus is also due to speak at 0800BST/0900CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut-adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-24 | 3.343 | -6.9 |
| Dec-24 | 3.038 | -37.5 |
| Jan-25 | 2.805 | -60.7 |
| Mar-25 | 2.474 | -93.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.250 | -116.2 |
| Jun-25 | 2.038 | -137.4 |
| Jul-25 | 1.932 | -148.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.835 | -157.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
