POWER: Germany December Power Rises
Nov-17 08:05
The German December power base-load contract is increasing to the highest since 5 November with gains in EU gas prices and forecasts for cool weather.
- Germany Base Power DEC 25 up 1.5% at 102.32 EUR/MWh
- Germany Power Cal 26 up 0.2% at 89.53 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power Week 2 up 8.7% at 110.91 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 80.87 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.6% at 31.45 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has rallied to the highest since Nov. 7 supported by expected higher demand due to cold weather this week.
- EUAs are trading rangebound with upside pressure from EU gas and power prices, while an upward revision in temperature forecasts is weighing.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will remain below the seasonal average until 25 November, before rising back above the average.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 4.1C on Tuesday, from 4.9C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 6.5C.
- German wind output is forecast between 8.91GW and 31.51GW during base load on 18-27 November.
- German wind output is forecast at 19.19GW during base load on Tuesday, from 19.97GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 150.7mcm/d on Tuesday, up from 133mcm/d on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 67.18GW on Tuesday, from 66.91GW on Monday and revised up from 66.02GW previously, Bloomberg data showed.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 35.83GWh/h on Tuesday, from 37.43GWh/h n Monday and revised up by 1.61GWh/h on the day, Reuters data showed.
- Germany’s hydro balance forecast at has been revised down to end at -124GWh on 1 December, from -11.9GWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
- Planned maintenance at RWE’s 635MW Niederaussem H lignite unit has been extended until 17 November.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
