POLITICAL RISK: German/EU Target Russian Energy, Shipping, Banking via Sanctions

• RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6   
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger        
• RES 2: 5724.13 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5512.18 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5450.00 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing  

A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5524.91, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5737.71. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low.

• It's another big session in FX, some wide overnight range in G10s as Market Participants continue to assess how much of a Safe Haven Currency the Dollar is, given the outlook growth Risk driven by Global Tariffs.
• DXY fell to its lowest level since May 2022 on Friday, the most Weighted EURUSD pair jumped to 1.1473, this was the best printed level for the EUR since February 2022, and just short of the 2022 high at 1.1495.
• Today the EURUS has settled back around the 1.1400 level, only printing a 1.1409 high.
• The Yen has taken over the NZD as the best early performing Currency, up 0.65%, but is still some way short of 142.25, the Overnight printed low in USDJPY.
• More interestingly, the Kiwi is clearing the April high, best level since December, next resistance comes at 0.5889, followed by the December high of 0.5927 in NZDUSD.

• RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22  
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
• RES 2: $67.56/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $61.68 @ 07:14 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.