RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

E-minis little changed to a touch lower ahead of the Wall St. opening bell, yesterday’s lows untested across the 3 major contracts.

• S&P 500 e-minis: -0.07%
• NASDAQ 100 e-minis: -0.16%
• DJIA e-minis: -0.02%

The latest Johnson Redbook retail sales index showed growth of 7.6% Y/Y in the week ending December 27, an acceleration from 7.2% prior. That brought month-to-date sales to 6.7% Y/Y with one week remaining on December's retail calendar (Jan 3), above retailers' targeted 6.5% and November's 6.4%. Indeed if the pace is maintained that would mark the joint-highest reading since December 2022 (April 2025 also posted 6.7%).

• While in nominal terms, that's suggestive of a solid end of the year for control retail sales, suggesting little let-up in PCE gains in Q4 (Q3 overall real PCE grew 3.5% Q/Q SAAR, with Goods PCE up 3.1%). The Atlanta Fed's currently nowcasting a 2.7% gain in Q4.
• We won't get the official Census Bureau retail sales data for December until an as-yet undetermined date; the November report is due out January 14.
• The anecdotes suggested strong consumer activity just before and after Christmas on the 25th: "Sales accelerated, with higher traffic counts in the days leading up to Christmas. Retailers reported most business occurred on the 24th—especially in groceries, jewelry, beauty, and home furnishings. After Christmas, traffic remained high as consumers exchanged and returned gifts, redeemed gift cards, searched for last-minute presents, and hunted for bargains. Retailers observed less return traffic as people researched purchases and adhered to budgets. More consumers, particularly young people influenced by social media and financial strain, are visiting thrift stores to find unique items and vintage designer brands, driven by sustainability concerns and the appeal of new shopping experiences."

• MNI:US OCT FHFA HPI SA +0.4% V -0.1% SEP; +1.7% Y/Y