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A reminder that UK STIR & gilt futures and options listed on ICE Europe will close at 12:15 on Wednesday 31 December 2025 and will remain closed on Thursday 1 January 2026.
Overall, the Riksbank December minutes portray a Board that is very content with the current policy setting. The overall view on inflation is relaxed, with most members still more cognizant of weaker-than-desired underlying pressures despite signs of an economic recovery. Deputy Governor Seim remains a hawkish leaning outlier.
Bunge - Balanced. Although she acknowledges lower underlying inflation pressures and does not expect an economic recovery to be too inflationary, she seems content with a 1.75% terminal rate for now.
Seim - A bit less hawkish than in previous months: Seim acknowledges that upside inflation risks are unlikely to be realised near-term, but remains more vigilant than other Board members of scenarios which could generate "powerful" inflationary pressures.
Jansson - Still slightly dovish leaning: Sees the risk of another rate cut as greater than the risk of a rate hike, with the risk of too low inflationary pressures having increased since November.
The Riksbank's December meeting minutes are here
Thedeen: Comments suggest he is very comfortable with the currency policy setting barring significant surprises/deviations from forecasts. Even if the policy rate forecast is increased in the year ahead due to the strong recovery, it does not necessarily constitute a clear hike signal given subdued inflation pressures.