POWER: BKW Commissions 125MW Wind Park in Italy

Jan-29 09:00

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Switzerland's BKW has commissioned the 125MW Cerignola onshore wind project in southeast Italy, it s...

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UK: Gilts & STIRs To Close Early On Wednesday

Dec-30 08:54

A reminder that UK STIR & gilt futures and options listed on ICE Europe will close at 12:15 on Wednesday 31 December 2025 and will remain closed on Thursday 1 January 2026.

RIKSBANK: Board Retains A Relaxed View On Inflation Despite Econ Recovery

Dec-30 08:53

Overall, the Riksbank December minutes portray a Board that is very content with the current policy setting. The overall view on inflation is relaxed, with most members still more cognizant of weaker-than-desired underlying pressures despite signs of an economic recovery. Deputy Governor Seim remains a hawkish leaning outlier. 

Bunge - Balanced. Although she acknowledges lower underlying inflation pressures and does not expect an economic recovery to be too inflationary, she seems content with a 1.75% terminal rate for now.

  • “Personally, I feel somewhat more assured now that we have cut the policy rate enough for this interest rate cycle, very much due to the improved economic outlook. But if there is something we have learned this year, it is that it is "better not to promise"”
  • “We can already see an effect of the krona appreciation on inflation via import prices and our forecast suggests some further strengthening and a cooling effect on consumer prices next year.”…”The compilation of forward-looking indicators instead points to a bias towards lower inflation”
  • “It is reasonable to believe that there is still plenty of spare capacity in the labour market, and thus a lower risk for significantly stronger inflationary pressures now that the economic situation is improving”

Seim - A bit less hawkish than in previous months: Seim acknowledges that upside inflation risks are unlikely to be realised near-term, but remains more vigilant than other Board members of scenarios which could generate "powerful" inflationary pressures.

  • “Although I see upside risks for inflation, forward-looking data does not yet indicate that my fears are about to be realised”
  • “I would like to reiterate that there are a number of factors that merit vigilance. A sequence of events I have given considerable thought to is one in which stronger demand effects of fiscal policy, combined with supply shocks, create more powerful inflationary pressures than in our forecast. If this were to happen, I would argue in favour of an 11 adjustment of our monetary policy more or less in line with what we described in our alternative scenario with higher inflation.”

Jansson - Still slightly dovish leaning: Sees the risk of another rate cut as greater than the risk of a rate hike, with the risk of too low inflationary pressures having increased since November.

  • “We need to be prepared to quickly reconsider our stance if necessary and, if that were to happen, for my part, I believe for the time being that it would involve cutting the policy rate further rather than raising it.”
  • “I stand by this conclusion and believe that the risks of inflationary pressures becoming too low a little further ahead have now even become somewhat greater”

RIKSBANK: Dec Minutes Released: Thedeen Thinks MonPol Less Data Dependent Now

Dec-30 08:38

The Riksbank's December meeting minutes are here

Thedeen: Comments suggest he is very comfortable with the currency policy setting barring significant surprises/deviations from forecasts. Even if the policy rate forecast is increased in the year ahead due to the strong recovery, it does not necessarily constitute a clear hike signal given subdued inflation pressures.

  • “Today, my own sensitivity to short-term variations in the behaviour of individual variables has decreased; confidence in the forecasts has simply increased. Going forward, this allows us to feel slightly more confident about our chosen course. In this sense, monetary policy becomes less data-dependent and more forward-looking”
  • “That said, we will, as always, adjust monetary policy if the outlook for inflation and the economy changes in any significant way”
  • “As there are plenty of spare economic resources in Sweden, it is difficult to see that we would raise the policy rate in the near term even if the recovery were to be unexpectedly rapid, given that inflation risks remain subdued. However, it would then probably be justified to change the forecast for the policy rate by increasing the probability of increases further ahead.”
  • “Under what conditions could we conceivably cut the policy rate next year? As I see it today, such a measure may be particularly relevant if both the economy and inflationary pressures next year are unexpectedly weak.”…. “If, on the other hand, the economy continues to strengthen in much the same way as we and other forecasters expect, then it is more difficult to see circumstances that would justify cuts in the policy rate”
  • “The steeper yield curve is something we need to monitor closely going forward, both its causes and its implications for monetary policy.”