RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg's EC...
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Adding to the Large Outright Call
ERU6 98.50c, bought for 3.25 in 17.5k total.
US: Speaker Johnson Downplays Election Results
Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-LA) has downplayed the significance of the results from elections across the country on 4 November. After a slew of Democrat wins, Johnson said, “What happened last night was blue states and blue cities voted blue. We all saw that coming, and no one should read too much into last night's election results. Off-year elections are not indicative of what's to come. That's what history teaches us.”
- For more analysis of the elections, see MNI's latest US Daily Brief: MNI POLITICAL RISK - 'Blue Wave' Fuels Democratic Optimism
STIR: Hawkish Extension In Fed Prices After ISM
The combination of a firmer-than-expected headline ISM services reading and prices paid sub-component (70.0) makes for an extension of the hawkish move in the USD front end.
- Note that the employment component remained in contractionary territory but wasn’t quite as soft as expected.
- Market now prices 16bp of easing for next month i.e. over 60% odds of a cut taking place, with a cumulative 24bp of easing showing through January, 31.5bp through March and 51.5bp through June.
- That compares to 17bp, 26bp, 35bp and 55bp ahead of the data.
- SOFR-implied terminal rate pricing moves to 3.13% vs. 3.09% seen ahead of the ADP employment release.
