RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

• RES 4: 92.72 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11 (cont)      
• RES 2: 92.14 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing  
• RES 1: 92.06 High Aug 14
• PRICE: 91.93  @ 14:47 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 90.90 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction 
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support  

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Today’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price has cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 92.14 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: $53.546  - Today’s intraday high
• RES 3: $52.821 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range
• RES 2: $52.010 - 50.0% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range
• RES 1: $51.199 - 23.6% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range     
• PRICE: $50.978 @ 14:48 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $49.677/46.791 - Low Oct 10 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $43.308 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded to a fresh cycle high today, however, price action is volatile and silver is off its intraday high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $46.791, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6718.50/6812.25 Intraday high / High Sep 9 
• PRICE: 6634.25 @ 14:29 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 6602.32 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Sep 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6602.32, and last Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.