RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Oct-31 14:17
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Friday afternoon.
- SpotRenewables and the German GFS model forecast similar wind generation levels on 6 November and 8 November. Meanwhile, SpotRenewables and the ECMWF see similar forecast on 5 November
- The largest deviation is noted when comparing ECMWF model and SpotRenewables over 6-9 November at between 13.3-28.4GW, with the biggest difference between the GFS model and SpotRenewbales on 2 November at around 2.7GW.
Despite these differences, all three models forecast wind output to brelatively volatile over 1-5 November.
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EGBS: Natixis Like Long Belly BTPs Vs. OLOs
Oct-01 14:10
Natixis recommend going long Oct ’29 BTPs vs. Oct ’29 OLOs.
- They write “OLOs are rich, and a potential downgrade of Belgium's sovereign rating by Moody's could trigger further underperformance of OLOs”.
- Natixis note that this strategy “leverages the favourable carry associated with BTPs. Key arguments for BTP-OLO convergence include the BTP market's reduced sensitivity to risk-off events, the underpricing of fiscal risks in Belgium and the improvement in political stability in Italy. Additionally, diverging debt dynamics indicate a more stable outlook for Italian debt than for Belgian debt”.
US TSYS: Post-ISM Data React
Oct-01 14:05
- Treasury futures paring gains slightly but still near recent session highs after mixed ISM data: Mfg & Employment both higher than exp, prices paid & new orders lower than exp.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades +12.5 at 112-28.5 (yld 4.0981% -.0522); Curves steeper: 2s10s +.918 at 54.909, 5s30s +3.333 at 102.181.
MNI: US ISM SEP MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 49.1
Oct-01 14:00
- MNI: US ISM SEP MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 49.1
- US ISM SEP MANUF PRICES PAID INDEX 61.9
