RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Friday afternoon.
- SpotRenewables and the German GFS model forecast similar wind generation levels over 30-31 October. Meanwhile, SpotRenewables and the ECMWF models are comparable – albeit deviations are above 1GW for all days.
- The largest deviation is noted when comparing ECMWF model and SpotRenewables on 2 November at 25.5GW, with the biggest difference between the GFS model and SpotRenewbales on 25 October at around 7GW.
Despite these differences, all three models still forecast wind output to be on a general downward trend until around 29-30 October before rebounding the next day.
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MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -0.61M TO 414.8M SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -0.61M TO 414.8M SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS -1.68M TO 123.0M IN SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -1.08M TO 216.6M IN SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.18M TO 23.7M BARRELS IN SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.23M TO 406.0M BARRELS IN SEP 19 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -0.3% TO 93.0% IN SEP 19 WK
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP1.6bln of the 1.125% Sep-35 linker (ISIN: GB00BT7HZZ68) at its auction next Wednesday, October 1.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 2: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3897 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3892 @ 15:30 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 1.3790/3727 50-day EMA / Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
Today’s rally in USDCAD undermines a recent bearish theme as the pair extends the recovery from the Sep 17 low. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.3890, the Sep 11 high. This exposes key resistance at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight an important short-term bullish break. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3790, the 50-day EMA.
