RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

Sep-26 14:13

See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Friday afternoon.

  • Spot Renewables, GFS and ECWMF models suggest similar wind output forecasts on 27-30 September and 1-2 October, with the smallest deviation on those days at between 0.08-0.9GW.
  • The largest deviations between Spot Renewables are noted between the ECMWF model on 4 October at around 19GW as the ECMWF estimates much higher wind.
  • Despite these differences, all three models anticipate wind to be generally low and flat over 28 September-2 October before rebounding to climb over 3-5 October.

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Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y/10Y Steepener

Aug-27 14:13
  • Steepener Block crossed at 1001:36ET, $330,000 DV01:
  • +7,150 FVZ5 109-08.75, buy through 109-08.5 post time offer vs.
  • -5,000 TYZ5 112-04 - post time offer

GILTS: 30s Outperform Core Global Peers On The Day

Aug-27 14:08

30-Year gilts outperform Tsys and Buxl on the day, with Tsys impacted by ongoing questions surrounding Fed independence, while the Buxl has been impacted by spill over from French political risks/OAT weakness.

  • Gilts have perhaps received some insulation after DMO consultation minutes showed ongoing appetite for a shortening of the WAM on offer on the part of both gilt investors and GEMMS.
  • Note that 30-Year gilt yields have been unable to retest multi-decade highs registered back in April (5.659%).
  • Meanwhile, gilt futures have rebounded from fresh cycle lows registered just after the open.

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B ESM 5Y SOFR Priced

Aug-27 14:07
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 08/27 $3B #Ontario 5Y SOFR +52
  • 08/27 $2B *ESM 5Y SOFR +39
  • 08/27 $1.25B Saudi Awwal 10NC5 +220