RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

• EUR/USD: Aug13 $1.1500(E2.5bln), $1.1570-80(E1.0bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln); Aug14 $1.1590-00(E1.5bln), $1.1695-00(E4.3bln); Aug15 $1.1590-00(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: Aug13 Y146.75-85($1.4bln), Y147.00($991mln), Y150.25($1.5bln); Aug14 Y147.00-20($1.2bln), Y148.15-30($945mln)
• GBP/USD: Aug14 $1.2975-00(Gbp1.2bln)
• EUR/GBP: Aug14 Gbp0.8690-05(E1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: Aug14 $0.6600(A$1.3bln)
• USD/CNY: Aug15 Cny7.5000($1.7bln)

• Greenback pressed higher still in recent trade, resulting in a steeper pullback for EUR/USD here, which shows through the Thursday low of 1.1611. Decent pick up in activity on the latest leg lower, however overall volumes are still well below average for this time of day - as has been the theme across the session so far.
• USD move here not headline driven (decision to deploy National Guard in Washington DC was very much expected) and is not being mirrored in cross-markets: both equities and the front-end of the US curve look relatively stable in comparison.
• Instead, the strength in the USD here likely the extended position-squaring after the soft NFP print earlier this month (USD Index still 1.4% below pre-NFP levels), and ahead of tomorrow's CPI print - the next data input for the September FOMC decision.
• Outside of the EUR, USD gains seemingly have less conviction: GBP/USD has reversed lower after a failed test on the 50-dma of 1.3502, and further weakness here will open 1.3398 support (23.6% retracement for the upleg off the 1.3142 low) ahead of the more notable level at 1.3310. Below here, the bounce will look to have concluded, and a further fade becomes more likely. Tomorrow's wages and unemployment numbers could prove key this week.

Secured rates were steady Friday, with SOFR remaining at 4.35%. 

• Rates are expected to print the same or perhaps slightly lower Monday. However pressure could pick up later in the week on Treasury auction settlements. These include $55B in net cash raised by bills on Tuesday and a further $42B on Thursday, followed by $35B in coupon settlements Friday.
• The  effective Fed funds rate remains steady at 4.33%.

REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.35%, no change, $2817B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.33%, no change, $1169B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.33%, no change, $1139B

New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume:  $115B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume:  $262B