RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

Tsy futures remain weaker/near session lows (TYU5 at 111-04.5, -8.5) ahead of the $13B 20Y bond auction re-open (912810UL0) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 4.931%, 1.1bp rich to last month's (small) tail. Today's results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.

• June auction recap: Treasury futures showed little reaction (TYU5 110-20.5, +1) after the $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UL0) drew a high yield of 4.942% vs 4.940% when-issued yield; 2.68x bid-to-cover vs. 2.46x prior.
• Peripheral stats: indirect take-up retreated to 66.74% vs. 69.02% prior; direct bidder take-up 19.88% from 14.07% prior; primary dealer take-up of 13.37% vs. 16.91% prior.

Gilts trade back from session highs that were registered around midday London time, with the previously covered downtick in Tsys providing some light pressure in more recent trade.

• That came after a downtick in crude oil prices and solid demand at this morning’s gilt auction factored into a recovery from lows.
• The rally from low in futures failed to get anywhere near closing the opening gap lower, which has negated some of the recent bullish momentum.
• Contract last -48 at 91.64, with yesterday’s boundaries continuing to provide initial support and resistance.
• Intraday bear steepening theme intact, yields 3-6bp higher. 5s30s remains on track for a fresh cycle closing high, last ~143bp.
• Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar on Thursday.

• RES 4: 6439.88 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 6381.50 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 6374.00 High Jul 21      
• PRICE: 6366.00 @ 14:31 BST Jul 23  
• SUP 1: 6288.25 Low Jul 17  
• SUP 2: 6264.70/6120.59 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 6075.25 Low Jun 24
• SUP 4: 5959.00 Low Jun 23  

S&P E-Minis have traded to a fresh cycle high this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6381.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6120.59. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6264.70.