RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

Low delta calls continue to trade - but option desks note rise in low delta put structures fading the rebound in underlying futures this morning. Projected rate cut pricing gains slightly vs. early morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.2bp, Sep'25 at -16.1bp (-14.9bp), Oct'25 at -29.2bp (-27.7bp), Dec'25 at -46.7bp (-44.5bp).

• +5,000 0QV5 97.00 calls vs. SFRV5 96.37 calls, 8.0 net, short Oct over
• +15,000 SFRU5 95.81 put vs. SFRZ5 95.87 puts, cab net
• Block, +15,000 SFRU5 95.75 put vs 95.81/95.87 call spd, 0.025
• +10,000 SFRU5 95.87/96.12 call spds vs. 95.62/95.75 put spds, 1.0 net
• -10,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.81 put spds 5.62/splits
• +1,000 SFRV5/SFRX5/SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 2x1 put spd strip, 19.75 (ongoing interest)

The DMO will sell GBP5bln of the 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BSQNRC93) at its auction next Tuesday (Jul 29)

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson has formally confirmed that US and Chinese delegations will meet in Stockholm on Monday 28 and Tuesday 29 July for talks aimed at reaching an agreement on trade and tariffs. Kristersson says that "The talks primarily concern the relationship between the US and China, but are also of great importance for global trade and the economy". These will be the third set of US-China talks held on foreign soil after the first and second rounds took place in Geneva, Switzerland, and London, UK in May and June, respectively.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business earlier today that “we’ll be working out what is likely an extension” on the suspension in significant tariffs to avoid a major ramp up when the current 90-day pause expires on 12 August.
• Bessent claimed that US-China talks were "in a very good place", and that he envisages the two sides discussing wider topics than just tariffs. Bessent said he wants to see China reduce its “glut of manufacturing that they’re doing and concentrate on building a consumer economy", and talk about “the sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil that they’re buying there, and what they’re doing to aid Russia”