RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Jun-05 14:10
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Thursday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts over 6-8 June, with the smallest deviations on those days at between 0.24-0.82GW.
- The largest deviations are seen over 11-12 June, with ECMWF predicting stronger wind than SpotRenewables on 11 June, while the models are seen diverging on 12 June.
Despite these differences, both models indicate wind to peak on 8 June before being on a general downward trend until 14 June.
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EQUITIES: Large Option in the EU Bank Index
May-06 14:10
More large Options in Equities, this time in the Bank index:
- SX7E (15th May) 185/190cs, bought for 2.65 and 2.70 in ~37.2k.
STIR: Markets Moves Back Towards 95bp Of BoE Cuts Through Year-End
May-06 14:08
Little in the way of meaningful movement in GBP STIRs today, with modest swings generally driven by offshore inputs and catch up after the long UK weekend.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~93.5bp of cuts through year-end after printing around 88.5bp at one stage today and over 100bp last week.
- A 25bp cut come the end of this week’s decision remains fully discounted.
- Contracts covering ’25 BoE meetings are little changed to ~2bp more dovish on the day.
- SONIA futures twist steepen on the day, +1.0 to -5.0.
- Thursday’s BoE monetary policy decision headlines the UK calendar this week.
- We expect a 25bp cut, in line with market pricing and all sell-side views we have read.
- We have outlined some potential dovish tweaks to the Bank’s guidance verses in the statement, which could pave the way for consecutive rate cuts over the next 3 meetings.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.201 | -25.8 |
Jun-25 | 4.069 | -38.9 |
Aug-25 | 3.869 | -59.0 |
Sep-25 | 3.732 | -72.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.574 | -88.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.525 | -93.4 |
EQUITIES: Some notable Large Estoxx Options
May-06 14:07
- SX5E (18th July) 4300/4250ps, bought for 2 and 1.9 in 18.75k.
- SX5E (18th July) 3925p, sold at 12.50 and 12.40 in 37.5k.
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