RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
May-09 14:03
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Friday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts on 10-11 May, 13 May and 17 May, with the smallest deviation on those days at between 0.08-0.79GW.
- The largest deviation is seen on 18 May as SpotRenewables predicts wind to drop from 17 May, while ECWMF expects wind to climb sharply. The deviation on that day is 11.4GW.
Despite this difference, both models estimate wind to peak on 12 May before being on a general downward trend over 13-17 May.
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TARIFFS: USTR Greer To House Ways And Means Ctte Underway Shortly
Apr-09 14:01
United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee is set to get underway shortly. LIVESTREAM
- Yesterday, in his corresponding Senate hearing on the Trump administration's trade agenda, Greer signalled that the goal of the administration’s tariff policy is to negotiate a new series of trade deals.
- Axios notes that Greer said the tariffs are “both” a short-term negotiating tool and a long-term punitive measure. He also declined to call the tariff escalation a trade war, since “most countries have said they’re not going to retaliate.”
- Greer added that if countries present solutions for shifting the dynamic, the message to them is "we want to negotiate with you," per NPR.
- Ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), told Greer yesterday: “...Trump and his advisers have yet to provide an understandable explanation – any explanation – for what his tax hike on the American people is supposed to accomplish.”
- Senator Todd Young (R-ID) said: “...trade retaliation doesn’t fall on everyone evenly. It has a different impact on a New York tech firm than it might have on a Hoosier soy bean farmer. … In Indiana, rural communities and export-driven manufacturers oftentimes feel the consequences and they feel the consequences first.”
- If there is going to be a concerted move by Congress to rein in Trump’s authority to unilaterally impose tariffs, it is likely to come from farm and manufacturing state Republicans like Young.
STIR: Surge in SOFR Call Spreads
Apr-09 14:00
Surge in SOFR call spds over the last few minutes, underlying futures remain weaker, short end support evaporating:
- +70,000 SFRM5 97.50/98.50 call spds 3.0-3.25 ref 96.10
- Block/screen +57,000 SFRM5 96.50/97.25 call spds 6.5-7.0 ref 96.125 to -.10
- +10,000 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys, 0.75 ref 96.10
- -5,000 0QM5 96.75/97.00/97.25 2x2x1 call flys, 12.0 ref 9684
- +4,000 2QM5 96.43 puts vs 3QM5 96.25 puts, 3.5 net db/Blue Jun over
- 9,000 0QK5 98.00 calls, 3.0 ref 96.86
MNI:US FEB WHOLESALE INV 0.3%; SALES 2.4%
Apr-09 14:00
- MNI:US FEB WHOLESALE INV 0.3%; SALES 2.4%
