RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Mar-13 15:24
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Thursday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts over 14-16 March, with the smallest deviation on those days at between 0.1-0.67GW.
- The largest deviation is seen on 19 March as the models are seen diverging, with SpotRenewables predicting wind to increase from 18 March, while ECMWF estimates wind to continue on a downward trend. The deviation on that day is 7.5GW.
Additionally, the deviation of the models is seen to steadily increase until peaking on 19 March before being on a general narrowing trend over 20-22 March.
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EURIBOR: Net Long Setting Seen In Whites and Greens On Monday
Feb-11 15:13
OI data suggests long setting and short cover dominated in Euribor futures on Monday, with futures settling +1.0 to +4.5 ticks through the blues.
- Indicative long setting was seen across contracts in the whites (net OI change +53.9k) and greens (net OIS change +5.1k).
| 10/02/2025 | 07/02/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 559,435 | 547,618 | +11,817 | Whites | +53,874 |
| ERM5 | 766,236 | 739,869 | +26,367 | Reds | +1,266 |
| ERU5 | 521,242 | 509,605 | +11,637 | Greens | +5,097 |
| ERZ5 | 611,636 | 607,583 | +4,053 | Blues | +362 |
| ERH6 | 408,513 | 409,477 | -964 | ||
| ERM6 | 333,381 | 334,069 | -688 | ||
| ERU6 | 273,602 | 272,728 | +874 | ||
| ERZ6 | 302,634 | 300,590 | +2,044 | ||
| ERH7 | 169,907 | 167,960 | +1,947 | ||
| ERM7 | 131,158 | 129,388 | +1,770 | ||
| ERU7 | 93,991 | 93,040 | +951 | ||
| ERZ7 | 118,285 | 117,856 | +429 | ||
| ERH8 | 58,137 | 57,129 | +1,008 | ||
| ERM8 | 44,130 | 44,021 | +109 | ||
| ERU8 | 29,529 | 30,089 | -560 | ||
| ERZ8 | 44,370 | 44,565 | -195 |
FED: Powell Repeats That FOMC "Not In A Hurry" To Adjust Policy
Feb-11 15:09
Key Powell quotes from the congressional testimony (link), all of which are almost entirely verbatim from the January FOMC press conference:
- "With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance." (Identical to the January FOMC prepared press conference statement)
- "If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly." (Almost verbatim)
- "We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." (The only thing missing in this identical language from his January press conference is the final line: "We're not on any preset course.")
- On data, "Labor market conditions have cooled from their formerly overheated state and remain solid. Inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated" is verbatim from January's press conference, though he is now able to include January's employment report in his congressional commentary ("Following earlier increases, the unemployment rate has been steady since the middle of last year and, at 4 percent in January, remains low.")
- In other words, no surprises - we await the Q&A.
JPY: More put seller in Exchange traded Option
Feb-11 15:06
- JPYUSD (7th Mar) 65.00p, sold at 0.03 and 0.025 in 9k total.
- JPYUSD (7th Mar) 61.00p, also sold at 0.03 in ~2.7k.
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