EUROPEAN INFLATION: German state CPIs likely firmer than exp at first glance
Apr-30 08:10
- So far the M/Ms are coming in in between 0.4% and 0.5%, except Lower Saxony at 0.3%.
- The Y/Ys run a bit of a wider range, in between 1.8% and 2.4%.
- National CPI (non-HICP) expectations were for a 0.3% M/M increase and for the Y/Y print to decelerate 0.2pp to 2.0%.
- This means that from the M/M, there should be some slight upside risks to consensus CPI - but note that we haven't received all state-level data quite yet, so take that call with a pinch of salt.
- For HICP (which doesn't always follow surprises in the national CPI), the consensus made ahead of these releases was for 0.4% M/M and a 0.2ppt Y/Y deceleration to 2.1%.
- We will follow up with more detailed analysis in due course.
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GERMAN DATA: State CPI data broadly in line with expectation
Mar-31 08:08
- The first few German state CPIs look broadly in line with expectations. We have received states which make up around 85% of the index and it is currently tracking at 0.32%M/M.
- In the Bloomberg survey German national CPI (not HICP) estimates were split between 0.2-0.4%M/M: the median estimate is 0.3%M/M but the modal estimate is 0.4%M/M.
- So we are broadly in line with expectations.
- The Y/Y is also tracking at 2.20% (consensus is 2.2%).
- Note that surprises in state CPI do not always fully correlate with surprises in HICP.
MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: Core FI Month-End Projections Deemed Average To Negligible
Mar-31 08:08
A reminder that BBG’s month-end index extension estimates are deemed average to negligible this month, but there will still be some focus on related flow in both the European & U.S. afternoons.
- US Tsys: +0.07yr
- EGBs: +0.06yr
- Gilts: -0.03yr
MNI: GERMANY NRW MAR CPI +0.3% M/M, +1.9% Y/Y
Mar-31 08:00
- MNI: GERMANY NRW MAR CPI +0.3% M/M, +1.9% Y/Y
