POWER: German Spot Power To Ease Back
The German spot power is forecast to ease back for Friday’s delivery amid higher renewables output and lower demand, after the baseload index reached the highest since 15 Dec 2022 (disregarding the IT glitch in June) for Thursday’s delivery. German front-month power is pulling back today, with forecasts for higher wind output, mild weather and losses in the energy complex.
- Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 1.6% at 107.5 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 down 0% at 68.6 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JAN 25 down 1.1% at 44.185 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 53.5% at 0.9182 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month falls to the lowest since Nov. 13 as warmer and windier weather next week is expected to limit gas demand while small Norwegian supply outages are easing.
- EU ETS December 2024 is trading rangebound, after seeing a choppy session in the morning, with downside from EU gas prices. The EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge higher to 4.2GW during base load on Friday, up from 1.83GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 9.26GW during peak load on Friday, up from 4.66GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- Forecasts for wind output have been revised up for late next week with output reaching up to load factors for 66% on Friday 20 December.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf has been slightly revised down at the beginning of the forecast period, but revised higher at the end of the forecast period. Mean temperatures will rise from below normal to above normal on 15 December.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to drop to 2.1C on Friday, down from 2.8C on Thursday and below the seasonal average of 3.8C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 59.43GW on Friday, down from 61.08GW forecasted for Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 53.95GWh/h on Friday, down from 60.41GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher on the day to end at -183GWh on 26 December, down from -213GWh forecasted a day earlier.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 0.6841 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6727 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6676/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7
- PRICE: 0.6550 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Last Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. This week’s move down reinforces the bearish theme. Sights are on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm resistance is at 0.6676, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would highlight a possible reversal.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 94.11/94.20 range.
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: -0.86%, Dax: -0.88%, CAC: -1.21%, FTSE -0.29%, SMI -0.67%.
