POWER: German Power Imports from France Drop to Multi-Month Low in Feb
Feb-26 15:17
German net power imports from France this month are on track to be at the lowest level for any month since November 2023.
- German net power imports from France averaged almost 1.3GW on 1-25 February, down from 1.76GW in January and below February 2024 levels of 1.86GW (see chart).
- The German day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot averaged €128.25/MWh so far this month, holding a €5.48/MWh premium over the French equivalent.
- In January, the German spot index averaged €118.48/MWh, holding a €12.73/MWh premium over France.
- Lower import requirements from Germany are partly due to lower power consumption this month with demand averaging 50.41GW on 1-25 February, compared with 58.76GW in January.
- Nuclear generation in France has declined this month to average 47.5GW on 1-25 February, down from an average of 51.74GW in January and the lowest level since November.
- The German March power base-load contract is trading at a €14.07/MWh premium to the French market at the time of writing, suggesting Germany will remain a net power importer from France next month.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pullback Extends
Jan-27 15:10
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 Intraday high / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6036.00 @ 14:58 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract initially started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
BONDS: Continuing To Edge Away From Highs
Jan-27 15:07
No meaningful reaction to the U.S. housing market data
- Cross-market cues dominate, with little of note on the news front over the last few hours.
- The recovery from session lows in equities continues to push core global FI markets away from session highs.
- Market participants are still assessing the risks posed to U.S. tech by Chinese startup DeepSeek.
- U.S. Tsys remain the outperformer amongst core global FI markets,
- EGB spreads to Bunds still wider on the day but narrow from session highs as equities recover.
MNI: US DEC NEW HOME SALES +3.6% TO 0.698M SAAR
Jan-27 15:00
- MNI: US DEC NEW HOME SALES +3.6% TO 0.698M SAAR
- US NOV NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.674M SAAR
