EUROPEAN INFLATION: German Inflation Firmer Than Expected, Appears Broad-Based
The German national flash December HICP print came in above expectations at +2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.7% M/M (0.5% cons; -0.7% prior). National flash CPI was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 2.2% prior) and 0.4% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; -0.2% prior). MNI noted some upside risks here after state-level data out this morning.
- Overall it appears that December's release points towards some broad-based acceleration, with all released categories printing higher than before. An uptick in services is especially noteworthy - seasonally adjusted data (out later this afternoon from the Bundesbank) will give some indication on ongoing momentum there.
- Core CPI accelerated to 3.1% Y/Y, its highest rate since March 2024 (3.0% Nov). Of the major sub-categories, services CPI is the most closely watched and came in at 4.1% Y/Y (4.0% prior).
- Goods inflation also accelerated, to 1.1% Y/Y (+0.7% prior), with the increase on the back of both higher energy (-1.7% Y/Y, joint highest since May 2024, and vs -3.7% Nov) and food inflation (+2.0% vs +1.8% Nov).
- Destatis noted that methodological changes related to reclassifications of goods and services ahead of making 2025 the new series base year are "expected to have only a minor impact on the overall result", with the effects for December's data explained in more details in the final report on Jan 16.
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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (2/2)
Throughout November’s policy and market volatility, though, Treasury auctions largely impressed, with 5 of 7 nominal coupon sales trading through.
- Auction Results: November’s nominal coupon auctions were generally strong, with five out of seven auctions trading-through, of which four saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The remaining two auctions; 3 and 20-year auctions tailed. See page 2.
- Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen). December is set to see $15B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $22B in 5Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
- MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (1/2)
MNI's latest US Treasury Issuance Deep Dive has just been published (PDF link here):
November proved a dramatic month for Treasuries. Yields were volatile before and after the Nov 5 election - after ending October at 4.28%, 10Y yields peaked at five-and-a-half-month high just above 4.50% mid-month before closing November just below 4.18%, as markets attempted to price in the implications of a Republican “sweep”.
- Also buffeting rates was speculation over the would-be successor to Treasury Secretary Yellen. President-elect Trump’s selection of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was greeted with bull flattening in the curve, implying perhaps that he’s seen as more cautious on fiscal deficits than some of the alternatives (he has expressed support for halving the annual budget shortfall to 3% of GDP).
- The first quarterly Refunding process of Bessent’s Treasury is in early February, by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management.
- Bessent for instance has argued that Yellen’s Treasury erred from a risk management perspective by boosting short-duration issuance, and there are suggestions he would be in favor of reversing course, telling Bloomberg in June “When rates are very low, you should extend duration…I think it’s very unfortunate what Secretary Yellen’s doing. She’s financing at the front end, and she’s making a bet on the carry trade, which is not good risk management.”
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
Our latest Employment Insight has just been published and emailed to subscribers.
