EMISSIONS: German Hourly Spot Costs Climb to Around €190/MWh, France Subdued
May-19 11:07
The French and German hourly prices did not enter negative territory amid higher power consumption and lower wind in both regions. German hourly spot prices rose to as high as around €190/MWh, with hourly costs more subdued in France amid stronger nuclear generation forecast.
- The Germany-France spot index spread narrowed to €68.76/MWh, compared with €70.94/MWh the day before.
- The German spot power index settled at €91.14/MWh, compared with €95.54/MWh in the previous session.
- Hourly day-ahead prices in Germany did not fall into negative territory and were seen as high as €192.25/MWh for hour 20-21.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast at 5.1GW during base load on Tuesday, down from 5.68GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Solar PV output is forecast to increase to 28.64GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 25.75GW on Monday.
- Additionally, Wind output in Germany has been revised up for the next seven days to 5.1GW-35.1GW during base load on 20-26 May.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 30.94GWh/h on Tuesday, from 29.62GWh/h on Monday.
- Tuesday’s residual load has been slightly revised higher compared with 30.05GWh/h as of the forecast 24h earlier, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 52.97GW on Tuesday, from 51.46GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
- The French spot power index settled at €22.38/MWh, compared with €24.60/MWh in the previous session.
- Hourly day-ahead prices in France also did not fall into negative territory but were only seen as high as €54/MWh for hour 22-23.
- French nuclear availability declined to 64% as of Monday morning, from 67% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- French nuclear reactor availability is forecast at 40.05GWh on Tuesday, from 39.39GWh on Monday, Reuters data showed.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 4.97GW during base load on Tuesday, slightly up from 4.84GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Solar PV output is forecast to edge up to 7.79GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 7.43GW on Monday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 33.73GWh/h on Tuesday, from 32.61GWh/h on Monday.
- Tuesday’s residual load has been slightly revised down compared with 33.32GWh/h as of the forecast 24h earlier, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 43.55GW on Tuesday, from 42.73GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
CHINA: Bond Futures Marginally Up Despite Liquidity Injection.
Apr-18 04:02
- China’s bond market reacted very little to a second day of sizeable liquidity injection.
- China’s 10YR bond future is up just +0.03 at 109.04 and remains firmly above all major moving averages. The nearest being the 20-day EMA at 108.61.
- The 2YR bond future is down -0.02 at 102.46; remaining below all major moving averages – the nearest being the 20 day EMA at 102.52.
- The 10YR CGB is marginally lower in yield at 1.64%
