COMMODITIES: Geopolitics Give Oil a Boost, Gold Set for Strong Weekly Gains

Bloomberg reported that US oil inventories fell 4.8mn barrels last week while they were unchanged at Cushing, according to those familiar with the API data. Product stocks were higher with gasoline stocks up 7.0mn and distillate 1.0mn. With the focus returning to supply/demand fundamentals, inventory data are likely to be scrutinised. The official EIA figures are released on Wednesday and will also include product demand. 

NZGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper, with the 5-year again underperforming, after US Treasuries closed near session lows on Tuesday ahead of today’s FOMC decision. 

• The US tsys move was initially driven by US job-openings data, which surprised sharply to the upside: October JOLTS printed at 7,670k (sa; cons. 7,117k), while September was also higher than expected at 7,658k. Both represent a notable jump from the 7,227k level seen in August, just before the government shutdown.
• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said monetary policy has no preset path and will change if the inflation outlook shifts. She emphasised the importance of assessing new data ahead of the next meeting and noted that global developments will also factor into policy decisions.
• NZ net migration estimates rose to +2,400 in October from a revised +1,760 in September.
• Swap rates are flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. 1bp of tightening is priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 57bps of tightening. Pricing is 10-50bps firmer than pre-RBNZ levels (see chart).
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$175mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI