OIL: Geopolitical Concerns Driving Prices Again
Oil prices are higher today following a CNN report that US intelligence believes that Israel is considering an attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but it is yet to make a decision which is likely to depend on the outcome of US-Iran talks. WTI is up 1.7% to $63.07, holding above resistance at $62.90, after spiking to $64.19 early in the APAC session. Brent is also 1.7% higher at $66.48 but made its intraday high of $66.63 more recently, above the 50-day EMA. The weaker greenback is also providing support (BBDXY USD index -0.4%).
- CNN says that “there is deep disagreement within the US government” about the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran. The US has seen Israeli movement of “air munitions and the completion of an air exercise”. Oil continues to be sensitive to a deterioration in the already fraught situation in the Middle East. Iran would retaliate if Israel attacked.
- Markets had been monitoring progress of US-Iran talks, which are scheduled to continue on the weekend in Rome, to see if sanctions are likely to be eased allowing it to increase its crude exports. A possible threat from Israel is likely to make discussions even more difficult.
- The EU imposed new sanctions on Russia targeting financial intermediaries and its shadow oil tankers following what it deemed an unsuccessful call between Trump and Putin this week. Trump believes more sanctions will only push Russia away from negotiations.
- Bloomberg reported that another 2.5mn barrels were added in the US, according to people familiar with the API data. However, gasoline stocks fell 3.24mn and distillate 1.4mn suggesting still robust demand. The official EIA data is out later today.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman and ECB’s Lane appear. The ECB’s May Financial Stability Review is published. UK April CPI is released and likely to show impacts from government policy changes.
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GOLD: Gold Surges as USD Struggles
- Playing catch up after a closed period Friday, gold jumped in early trading in the Asia morning to reach new all-time highs.
- Opening at US$3334.44, gold has touched a new high of $3,376.03.
- This takes gold year to date gains in excess of 28% and is causing forecasters globally to reset their year end expectations.
- Gold sits above all major moving averages, with the nearest the 20-day EMA of $3,158.88
- A strong day for China bourses yet mixed throughout the region despite the weaker USD.
ASIA STOCKS: Strong Day for China as Hang Seng Leads.
A strong day across the region for some bourses as the USD weakened on Federal Reserve uncertainty with the Hang Seng leading the way.
With all major bourses enjoying strong gains, Taiwan’s TAIEX was an outlier falling -1.65 as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares drop as much as -2.1% after the company’s Arizona subsidiary posted a loss of NT$14.3 billion last year.
South Korea’s presidential-election front-runner, vowed to lift corporate governance standards and curb malpractices such as stock manipulation in a bid to boost the allure of the nation’s $1.6 trillion stock market.
- In China the Hang Seng rose +1.6% today for one of the biggest gains in the region, with the CSI 300 not as euphoric rising just +0.15%, Shanghai Comp +.30% and Shenzhen Comp +0.99%.
- The KOSPI is having as good a start to the trading week trading flat to where it started, despite the comments from the election front runner.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Malaysia KLCI fell -0.18% today.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell -0.26%
- In Singapore the FTSE Straits Times was a standout rising +1.00%
- India’s NIFTY 50 has had a strong start to Monday rising +0.75%
OIL: Crude Down As US Worries Impact Markets
After rising close to 5% last week, oil prices are lower today driven by a pullback in risk following pressure from US President Trump on the Fed to cut rates and worries regarding the impact of increased protectionism on energy demand. April trade and confidence data will be monitored closely for signs of any early impact. Crude remains well above initial support levels though. The USD is significantly weaker (BBDXY USD index -0.7%) as markets fear political interference in US monetary policy.
- WTI is down 1.5% to $63.69/bbl during holiday-impacted APAC trading today. It reached a low of $63.38 earlier and is now around 10% softer this month with the bearish theme remaining intact. Last week’s rally helped the oversold condition to unwind. Initial support is at $55.12 with resistance $64.49.
- Brent has sold off 1.6% to $66.87/bbl following a low of $66.61. Last week’s 4.8% rise is considered corrective with the trend direction down. Initial support is at $62.00 with resistance at $67.95.
- Talks appear to be progressing between the US and Iran on its nuclear programme, which if successful could result in increased oil exports. Iranian comments continue to support its right to enrich uranium though and the lack of an agreement may result in tighter sanctions, which if enforced would support oil prices.
- The US has suggested that a lasting ceasefire in the Ukraine would allow an easing of sanctions on Russia, which would also add to global oil supplies, but it seems that the Easter truce has not been respected.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and the US March leading index is released. Europe remains closed.
