EU REAL ESTATE: Gecina 10yr Final ms+85

• Greene asked about inflation expectations and a weakening labour market and reconciling those, points to academic papers noting that if inflation is under 4% people won't notice it and feed it through to expectations, but given the high inflation recently a platter at 3.5% (as she described it in here speech rather than a peak) might have more impact.
• Says that she is looking at the wage data "really closely to gauge" where we are and "look at financial conditions every single round."
• "I mentioned that I'm putting a bit more weight on our own indicator based metric for employment growth than on what the ONS is kicking out. So we have these indicator-based models for employment and unemployment. The vacancies feed is not coming from the Labour Force Survey. So that tends to be a bit more reliable. And actually most of the weakening in the labour market has been coming from that side of things. So I think that is a signal that you can look at. We also look at a bunch of other data series. You know, we're looking at so called unconventional ones that we all discovered during the pandemic, when we needed more real time data, like things like that. We're looking at RTI, the REC. So we're not just looking at the Labour Force Survey. We have a bunch of different series that we can pull on to get a fuller picture of what's going on in the labour market."

Both Israel and Iran are accusing one another of breaches of the fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Amichai Stein at Israel's i24 reports an Israeli official saying, regarding any potential response against supposed Iranian breaches, "The Americans are with us—they know Iran has violated the ceasefire". Iran has claimed that Israel carried out three waves of strikes on Iran up until 09:00 local time, after the ceasefire came into effect. 

• Speaking to his Emirati counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claims that "Tehran is committed to good-neighbourliness and strengthening relations with all neighbours...Illegal attacks of US and Israel pose an unprecedented threat to regional peace and stability.'
• Qatari PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani says that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has called to express Tehran's regret at targeting a military base in Qatar. Al Thani says 'We hope the situation in the Middle East gets contained as soon as possible.' Says that Iranian attacks on Qatar 'will scar relations with Iran', but he 'hopes neighbourly relations will not be damaged'. PM: 'We hope we don't see any hostility in the Gulf neighbourhood in the future...We hope Iran will continue to partner with Qatar and all Gulf countries.'

Separately, there appears to be pressure on Israel to use the ceasefire to continue indirect talks with Hamas over a ceasefire in Gaza. PM: 'In the next to days there will be indrect talks between Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire...We hope that Israel does not take advantage of the ceasefire to keep attacking Gaza.' 

• In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish, reinforced by Monday’s gains. The recovery highlights the fact that the latest correction has been a shallow one and that support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.1457 - remains intact. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend and a breach of 1.1631, the Jun 12 high, would confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.1685, 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg.
• The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3367, remains intact. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. The pair is approaching key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
• USDJPY has reversed lower from Monday’s high. This undermines a recent bullish theme and yesterday’s price pattern appears to be a shooting star candle formation. If correct, it signals a reversal of the recent bull cycle. Support to watch lies at 144.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and open 144.34, the Jun 18 low. On the upside, a move above Monday’s high of 148.03 would reinstate a bullish theme.