US DATA: GDPNow Unrevised At -1.8%, Gold-Adjusted +0.2%
Mar-26 16:19
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is unrevised at a rounded -1.8% annualized for Q1 from -1.8% with the Mar 18 update (technically revised down from -1.76% to -1.81%).
- The first formal estimate of the gold-adjusted figure came in at +0.2%, maintaining a 2pp gap seen in LinkedIn estimates from GDPNow’s Higgins earlier in the month as we suspected would be the case.
- A reminder that final sales to domestic purchasers are seen adding 1.55pps to GDP growth, no way near the deterioration seen in tracked GDP growth but still a notable moderation after a strong 3.0pp in Q4 and a particularly firm 3.7pp in Q3.
- The private version of this domestic demand measure tells a similar story, currently tracking a 1.2pp contribution after 2.6pp in Q4 and 2.9pp in Q3.
- Tomorrow’s advance trade data can give an idea of latest gold adjustment tweaks but we don’t think they can be actually factored into calculations until the full release on Apr 3.
- The next GDPNow update will be on Fri, Mar 28.
- As noted earlier, looking through some of these impacts rather than the more mechanical Atlanta Fed GDPNow approach, GS for example see Q1 real GDP tracking at 1.3% annualized. That’s still a sizeable moderation from the 2.35% in Q4 and 3.1% in Q3.
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US: Speaker Johnson Heads Into Budget Vote With Uncertain Support
Feb-24 16:15
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has uncertain support from at least 13 Republican House Representatives ahead of this week's vote on his multi-trillion dollar budget resolution, designed to underpin a reconciliation package that will cover the bulk of President Donald Trump's agenda.
- Haley Talbot at CNN notes on X, confirming reporting highlighted in this morning's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief, that Rep Victoria Spartz (R-IN) has indicated she is a firm no. According to Talbot, 12 other Republicans are on the fence, including a group of frontline Republicans concerned that potential Medicaid cuts could blowback at the ballot box in 2026.
- If all members are present and voting, two Republicans 'no' votes will scupper the budget blueprint and hand the initiative back to the Senate, which passed its competing budget blueprint last week.
- The House Rules Committee will meet at 16:00 ET 21:00 GMT to set rules for the budget resolution, with a full House vote reportedly teed up for Tuesday evening. LINK
- Sarah Ferris at CNN notes that along with Spartz, "At least 4 other Rs have told Johnson they need assurances spending cuts won’t affect benefits before advancing budget plan. Many Rs doubt this vote will happen tomorrow"
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