US: GDP Growth Now Tracking A Sizeable Bounce in Q3
Sep-30 17:22
- Despite tepid real consumer spending in today's PCE report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow has been revised up notably from 0.27% to 2.43% for Q3.
- Instead, the relative boost came from net exports and a net inventory drag revised away.
- If accurate it would see a solid bounce from 1H22 that most recently has been shown to be a technical recession when looking at both GDP and an average of GDP and GDI after notable downward revisions to GDI (more here).
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US: Reminder: Fed Speakers This Evening
Aug-31 17:18
- Dallas Fed new President Lorie Logan event at 1800ET
- Atl Fed Bostic, moderated Q&A Georgia Fintech Academy at 1830ET
- Link for Bostic: Fintech
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South
Aug-31 17:00
- RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
- RES 3: 1.0220 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
- RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 1.0054 @ 16:06 BST Aug 31
- SUP 1: 0.9982/9883 Low Aug 30 / 1.764 proj of Jun 9-15-27 swing
- SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9681 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
EURUSD firmed into the close, but continues to trade in a range and below 1.0090, Aug 26 high. The downtrend remains intact and moving average studies still highlight a downward path. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.0090.
OPTIONS: Multiple Bobl Put Spreads, Large Euribor Structures
Aug-31 16:49
Wednesday's Europe rates / bond options flow included:
- OEV2 123.50/122.00 put spread sold at 64 in 2k
- OEV2 122/120 put spds bought for 44 in 4k
- OEV2 121.0/119.5 put spd bought for 23.5-24.0 in 2k
- ERH3 98.375/98.125/98.00 put fly vs 99.625 call. Sells put fly at 8 in 5k
- ERV2 98.25/98.125/98.00/97.875 put condor vs ERZ2 99.00/99.125 call spread, bought for 2.25 in 8k (+condor, - call spread)
- ERZ2 98.12/97.87/97.62 put flys bought for 3.25 in 10k
