CZK: GDP Data For 4Q25 Due Tomorrow
- CNB economist Sona Benecka wrote in a blog post on the central bank's website that heightened volatility of food prices creates an impression among consumers that they are generally rising, complicating the last mile in the fight against inflation. The impact of food prices on inflation perceptions is amplified by the fact that food represent such a large share of household expenditures. She called for more analytical focus on food prices in the post-pandemic era, pointing to the need to work out adequate monetary policy response strategies to supply-side shocks.
- Seznam Zpravy released an analytical piece noting that ongoing convergence with Western Europe contributes to boosting food prices in Eastern Europe, while Czechia also has one of the highest energy prices and VAT rates on food in the region.
- The CZSO will release flash Q4 GDP data at 08:00GMT/09:00CET tomorrow.
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USDCAD TECHS: Key Directional Triggers Defined
- RES 4: 1.4654 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 1.4404 @ 08:06 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: 1.4253 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is trading inside a range. Recent price action highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition is bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4253, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria dual-tranche mandate: Books open
New 10-year Feb-35 RAGB
- Guidance: MS+51bps area
- Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E4.5-5.0bln including E250-500mln retention)
- Maturity: 20 February 2035
- Coupon: Long first
- ISIN: AT0000A3HU25
1.85% May-49 Green RAGB tap
- Guidance: MS+80bps area
- Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E1.0-2.0bln)
- ISIN: AT0000A2T8G4
For both:
- JLMs: BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Raiffeisen Bank International
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Holds Firm
- RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6325/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.6252 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.
