US DATA: GDI Contracts In Tandem With GDP As Corporate Profits Pull Back

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.07 @ 16:24 GMT Apr 29 
• SUP 1: 161.41/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support 
• SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4 

Short-term weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. Key S/T support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.41, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.     

Option desks reported better upside call volume on net underlying futures see-saw near midday highs (TYM5 +7.5 at 112-04.5 vs. -07.5 high). Curves mildly steeper (2s10s +.412 at 51.346). Projected rate cut pricing rising in the second half of the year compared to this morning's levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -2.6bp (-2.3bp), Jun'25 at -16.9bp (-16.9bp), Jul'25 at -39.1bp (-37.6bp), Sep'25 -61.0bp (-57.4bp).

SOFR Options:
+20,000 SFRU5 96.00 puts, 10.0 vs. 96.315 to -.32/0.25%
-15,000 SFRN5/0QN5 96.12/96.25 call spd spd, 5.25 midcurve over, steepener
+10,000 SFRZ5 96.75/97.25 call spds, 14.25 ref 96.645
-8,000 0QM5 96.87/97.00/97.25/97.3 call condors, 2.87 ref 96.98
+2,500 0QM5 97.50/98.00/1000 2x3x1 call flys 7.0 vs. 96.365/0.14%
+3,500 0QK5 96.75 puts, 6.5
+5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees, 2 ref 96.585
-4,000 0QM5/2QM5 95.87/96.12 put spd strip w/2QM5 96.00/96.25 put spd, 2.5 total
21,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.00/96.25/96.37 call condors
15,400 SFRM5 95.75/95.81 put spds ref 95.895
11,400 SFRM5 95.68 puts, 0.5 last
over 5,900 SFRZ5 95.62 puts, 3.5 last
12,580 SFRZ 95.56/95.68/95.81 put flys ref 96.575
2,500 0QZ5 97.00/97.50 call spds ref 96.935
1,850 SFRK5 95.81/96.18 1x2 call spds ref 95.885

Treasury Options:
+15,000 wk2 TY 112.75 calls, 21
2,500 TYM5 112 straddles,
+5,000 TYM5 109/113 strangles, 35-36
-6,000 TYM5 111.75 straddles, 142 (imp vol 7.22%)
+12,000 TYM5 110/113 strangles, 38-39 vs. 111-25/0.25% (imp vol 7.36%)
20,000 wk1 5Y (exp Fri)/Mon wkly 5Y (exp Mon) 110 call spds ref 108-26.75
6,300 TYM5 113/116 call spds ref 111-27.5
over 4,300 TYM5 114 calls

• Total of 8,000 SOFR White packs (SFRM5-SFRH6) Blocked at +0.030, most likely swap related with spreads running tighter in the vicinity.